new strategy?

[zipppy]

Also, AQs is a solid multiway hand...you don't always want/need to be heads up with good hands.

[bawcerelli]

I limp AQs this early, I fold AQo, unless in the SB then I'll complete.

[checkers777]

Against the donkbox calling station at these limits i dont think you want to gamble preflop in the early stages. You can use your postflop skills to take their chips by playing ABC poker.

[Hendricks433]

Risk/reward ratio? 1500 to win 150? Hmm sounds like a sweet deal to me. Why not try and get a good flop and actually win some chips. 150 does nothing for me here with 1500 stacks really. Party sng is different too though cause 150 seems to be a much bigger difference.

[Mariogs379]

thank you all for your responses but i do still think its a +cEV push because no one and i mean almost literally no one will limp with AA/KK/QQ/AK so getting called by any other hand is either a coinflip or im way out in front when i do get called. otherwise im simply picking up t150, i understand itd be a better play later on with higher blinds but why not push it here? anyone care to do a structured hand analysis like harrington does in vol 2 of HOH to see whether its +EV overall...
itd be really helpful, otherwise i think its a great play for the lower limits

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]
no one and i mean almost literally no one will limp with AA/KK/QQ/AK

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be new here.

[tigerite]

Who gives a stuff about +cEV

It's icmEV you want

FWIW I just complete here. Pushing for 10% of your stack is not good. It wants to be 20% at least.

[Damian UK]

No one limps with AA?? LOL - I see it all the time at the $1 to $5 tables - they think they are being clever and want to get 'value' for their rockets, only to be caught calling an all in on the flop to a couple of draws/two pair hands that others have limped in with and which they can't let go when it goes pot sized bet, raise, reraise all in etc. (their Aces look soooooooooooo pretty! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img])

I know this has been discussed before but I always push AA on levels 1 and 2 because someone sees KJ and falls in love with it [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] - tho many others will disagree with me on pushing AA so early [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Just my thoughts

Damian

[SonnyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
thank you all for your responses but i do still think its a +cEV push

[/ QUOTE ]

This is well and good, but just because it's +cEV doesn't mean it's the right play. You're looking for the most +EV play. There are times that situations arise where there are 2 +EV plays, but you're looking for the better of the two.

I did a very rough ICM calculation, which I believe illustrates this point.
1. You fold, one player picks up the pot with a flop bet.
You: 1490 (ICM: .1105)
1 Other: 1630
1 Other: 1500
6 Others: 1480

2. You push all in
2a. Everyone folds (40% of the time)
You: 1640 (ICM: .1203)
1 Other: 1500
7 Others: 1480

2b. 1 person calls (60% of the time)
You win
You: 3120 (ICM: .2092)
1 Other: 1500
6 Others: 1480
You lose
ICM: 0

For all-in move to be equal to folding:
.1105= .4(.1203) + .6[x(.2012) + (1-x)(0)]
.1105= .04812 + .12072x
.06238= .12072x
x= .517

This is clearly very flawed (ie. only compares it to you folding, assumes you get folded to 40% of the time, ignores situations where you get 2 callers, etc.). But, for the sake of this example, you need to be almost 52% to win when you get called for it to be a +$EV play. If you're getting called 60% of the time, it's fair to assume you'll be ahead this percentage of the time.

Here's the thing: that doesn't mean there isn't a better path. +EV isn't +EV, but rather you're looking for the best decision. This shows that your push is superior to folding, but what about calling and taking a flop? You get away for very little when you miss and can more confidently bet when you get a favorable flop. If people would be willing to call your all in and play as poorly as you suggest, why wouldn't they be willing to come along with a worse A or Q or even worse when you hit?

In limit cash games you sometimes bet when you know you're giving correct odds for your opponent to call. While this isn't a good situation, it's better than the alternative, which is letting your opponent draw for free. The flip side of this is what you have here. You can push now and take down some chips, but it may not be better than the alternative. I'd be willing to bet you that you could get a much better return on calling here and getting chips in as a bigger favorite later on.

-SonnyJay