Today's quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation

[marsvolta619]

I'm checking because I'm assuming I dont have reads and yes, I would hate getting c/rd with slight odds to call

If the pot had an absolute ton of bets in it I would bet this turn HU. In a small pot the times he passes you with some pair (you have all of broadway covered) are much less significant than the times he cr's you.

[rory]

Here is like my general sort of thinking which is sort of tuned from playing online and might be mistuned. I'm rusty.

I don't know anything about my opponent. I have two overcards and a gutshot. If I get check raised I hate folding because I have a draw to the nuts and I might be folding a hand with ten outs or possibly the best hand. If I check I can call a river bet without worrying too much because I just made a bluff inducing move by checking on the turn and I'm so aggressive on the button I can easily have no hand after my turn check. If I bet the turn, though, he might fold a pocket pair which would be great. He also might fold a hand like Q8 or something which has 10 outs to beat me too. But.. the pot is very small. So I don't mind much if I give a free card because the pot is so small and I might be getting a free card or dodging a check raise anyway. So I'll give him a free card that might be a free card for me in a nothing pot and call his possible bluff bet on the river because I think my hand is probably good >25% of the time. Hope I spike a Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

[Wynton]

I'm not saying it's inconsistent, just trying to clarify the logic.

Let me see if I understand you and the others correctly. We think our hand is good more than 1/5 times, thereby justifying a river call (provided we just checked the turn). We don't like the c/r because we are going to be compelled to call the raise due to our outs (contrary to the advice given by the authors).

But does it really suck so much to call the c/r and then fold an ui river, against this unknown opponent? And don't we need to take into account the times that the villain c/r here just on a draw, but then gives up on the river by checking to us?

If you were willing to put a bet in on the turn hoping that your hand was best, why wouldn't you be willing to put one in on the river? I almost never fold UI here.

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
If you were willing to put a bet in on the turn hoping that your hand was best, why wouldn't you be willing to put one in on the river? I almost never fold UI here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I don't think that necessarily follows. Just because we believe we are ahead when we bet the turn, does not necessarily mean that we still believe we're ahead once we're check/raised and the villain follows up with another bet.

[SoSo]

all middle limit poker does recommend is folding.

I'm talking about calling when we check behind. If you call UI after a c/r you're usually throwing good money away.

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I don't think that necessarily follows. Just because we believe we are ahead when we bet the turn, does not necessarily mean that we still believe we're ahead once we're check/raised and the villain follows up with another bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ooohhh. I thought you meant do we call the river when we check behind on the turn, not do we call the river after the turn c/r.

In that spot I probably fold without a read.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
why would anyone bet the turn here?

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly