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#51
12-15-2005, 01:59 PM
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Re: 98s.
Reads > Math
[ QUOTE ] you really think you're beat by a boat, you can't call that turn bet if you're folding to a small river bet on a blank river; you're just wasting money on the turn. That being said I call both streets. [/ QUOTE ] Do me a favor. Never use this logic in a thread of mine ever again please. Thank you. 
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#55
12-15-2005, 02:25 PM
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Re: 98s.
When a tight player limps in EP, he's got 22-TT (maybe JJ), and less often decent suited connectors 56s-JQs (maybe KQs).
That being said, when a tight player pulls a stop&go on a coordinated board, he has a hand that he believes has showdown value. Raising at any point after the flop has no value, as none of the hands you beat will pay you off. Your river fold is bad. I'll call his weaksauce bets every time here and expect to beat 88-99-TT. If he has a boat so be it, you gain because he didn't pot the turn. Woulda been sick if he freerolled you with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
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#56
12-15-2005, 02:37 PM
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Re: 98s.
1) Just because you start a thread doesn't make it "yours".
2) Why post this hand if you are just going to disagree with all the advice people are giving you? From an objective, away from the table, in a vacuum view, you played this hand pretty horribly. If you think folding that river versus your everyday run of the mill 1/2 NL player is a profitable play then you are just wrong. If you think this fold is right then you have a read dictating the correctness of the fold. If you have this read then it's not up for debate, so why post this hand?
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#57
12-15-2005, 03:09 PM
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Re: 98s.
[ QUOTE ]
Reads > Math [ QUOTE ] you really think you're beat by a boat, you can't call that turn bet if you're folding to a small river bet on a blank river; you're just wasting money on the turn. That being said I call both streets. [/ QUOTE ] Do me a favor. Never use this logic in a thread of mine ever again please. Thank you. [/ QUOTE ] You're read says you're ahead on the turn but behind on the river? Nice read man. Nice read. I'll do you one up and never post any advice to you ever again. Seems a waste of time. Other people are likely to come to this conclusion as well. Everyone feels you played this hand poorly in one way or another, if you don't agree with any of them and don't care to consider what anyone offers than why post, as everyone else said?
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#58
12-15-2005, 06:10 PM
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Re: 98s.
[ QUOTE ]
Reads > Math [ QUOTE ] you really think you're beat by a boat, you can't call that turn bet if you're folding to a small river bet on a blank river; you're just wasting money on the turn. That being said I call both streets. [/ QUOTE ] Do me a favor. Never use this logic in a thread of mine ever again please. Thank you. [/ QUOTE ] Hey skeme; his logic is good.
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#59
12-15-2005, 06:36 PM
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Re: 98s.
I think this thread is sufficient evidence that using pt stats and the action in this cannot definitively say you are behind often enough to make folding getting that good of a price the correct move. Reads > math? Yes. But your read in this case is a statistically unreliable small chunk of PT data and some wierd maybe weak, maybe strong type action. You have to know that in a theoretical vacumn those stats and this action just aren't going to be sufficient to justfy folding the river for that price to most poker players.
FWIW, when a tight preflop player is willing to give me action on this flop I gas it hard and no board pairing minus major pot bet type action is keeping me from show down. Flame away! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#60
12-15-2005, 10:49 PM
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Re: 98s.
[ QUOTE ]
84 from a 15% vpip UTG+1? 99 is possible but the other boatages seem much more likely. [/ QUOTE ] It was a joke. Others have suggested these hands as much more likely than a boat. I think that's ridiculous.. [ QUOTE ] 2) Why post this hand if you are just going to disagree with all the advice people are giving you? [/ QUOTE ] I didn't disagree with all of the advice. I pointed out that saying he can have A6, 86, 84, and 34 is [censored] ridiculous. Yeah, I may have played the hand horrible, which is why the lot of you are disagreeing with my play, which you deem incorrect.. but when I deem some of the advice in this thread as incorrect as well, I'm chastized? There's a double standard because I created a thread asking for advice and rejected it. [ QUOTE ] If you think folding that river versus your everyday run of the mill 1/2 NL player is a profitable play then you are just wrong. [/ QUOTE ] This isn't a run of the mill 1/2 player. A run of the mill 1/2 player has a VPIP of 25 or higher and no thought process. Villain does. [ QUOTE ] If you think this fold is right then you have a read dictating the correctness of the fold. If you have this read then it's not up for debate, so why post this hand? [/ QUOTE ] What set of rules says I absolutely HAVE to call this river? There isn't one. The driving force behind you telling me to call is YOUR read on the hand. Mine is simply different. This is not a hard concept to grasp. [ QUOTE ] You're read says you're ahead on the turn but behind on the river? Nice read man. Nice read. [/ QUOTE ] No, I hadn't decided on a read yet, obviously. I thought if he had a drawing hand or a smaller PP he would check the river. If he bet again on the river I would fold. This isn't some foreign play here, buddy. [ QUOTE ] Everyone feels you played this hand poorly in one way or another, if you don't agree with any of them and don't care to consider what anyone offers than why post, as everyone else said? [/ QUOTE ] Better yet, why post a hand at all if I'm just going to accept every single thing someone says? Sure, he CAN have 84o in EP! Thanks guys! It's all so clear now, call this river every single time because I called the turn! Excellent, this will DEFINITELY make me money in the future.. [ QUOTE ] Hey skeme; his logic is good. [/ QUOTE ] Hey Roberto, I never want this logic in my presence again.
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