Bursting My Own Bubble--I need to plug this leak!

[DougBrennan]

Last night in the Stars rebuy: we're nearing the money, I'm playing a newly-minted stack that's above average, but not by a lot, maybe 62K, blinds are, I believe, 1500/3000, and I have a couple of super-sized stacks to my left.

I'm the button with A9o, folded to me and I take a stab at the pot with a bet of 9K. SB folds, but BB goes all-in. Well, no question, I'm El Foldo. But I "think" for a moment or two before mucking, and the BB shows AKo.

I do not play again until we've completed a lap, and we have the same situation. I'm button-man, about 50K, folded to me, this time I have AJo. I make the same 9K bet. SB folds, BB goes all-in again!

Here's the leak: all I really know about the BB is that he has a big stack and has been slightly on the aggressive side since he came to the table maybe 30 hands ago. But the only hand of his I've seen is the AK from the previous lap. Yet I decide he is playing me, relying on my previous fold behaviour to resurface.

Well, he's not going to outplay me! No sirree Bob! I'll show his sorry butt, I'm calling with my now-miserable AJ. By God, that'll show him.

So I hit the call button, the hand-for-hand "Bubble Banner" appears on the screen, and BB shows his hand, KK. No help for me and I'm out as Bubble Boy.

Now I'm not sure anyone else can really help me with this leak, a sort of ego-induced-overthink problem, but I felt that writing about it might help me help myself, and I certainly would welcome any thoughts you might have.

Doug

[pokerraja]

AJ hand. I like the raise. but when he re-raises all-in, why call? you would still have T41,000. Your still in fairly comfortable shape. Don't assume he cant have a monster again. I think that was your problem. This actually pisses me off. Usually, im the BB guy with the KK hand, and the button figures i cant have a big hand again, and he will bust me with his AJos. So many players think oh, he cant have a big hand again, hes trying to "play me". NO NO.

However, lets say you have less than 10BB's in this same situation, I think you push all-in, and if you lose, it happens.

[kuro]

I've been looking at this same issue lately. Here are my thoughts.

1. People with big stacks tend to aggressively defend their blinds against smaller stacks late in the tourney.

2. If you're going to bet in a blind steal position against a big stack, you need a hand that you would feel comfortable going all in with because they may very well put you all in pre or post flop if they think its a coin flip situation. They know that you really can't afford to coin flip them.

3. If you get into an all-in with them over the blinds and you have a hand that dominates them and you double up then you probably can get away with more marginal hand against them later down the road.

4. If you try a marginal hand and they push you out with a big raise either pre or post flop the same thing is probably going to happen to you again the next time.

5. Sometimes you can try to limp in to see the flop with a marginal hand. If you hit the flop really hard you bet the pot and hope to pick up the antes/blinds when the BB folds or maybe double up against him if he raises you in and you feel you've got him beat. The nice thing about limping at him is that if he makes a big raise from the blind, you can just muck it with out looking like you were trying to steal his blinds and then next time when your raise is 4 times the blinds in the same situation alarm bells should be going off in the big blind player's head.

6. The other thing that you have to remember is that the big stack that moved to your table recently probably doesn't have a feel of how tight or loose you've been playing. It's tough because you've worked so hard developing say a reputation for being tight. You just can't count on being given any credit for your tightness.

These are my thoughts on this situation. I'd love to hear other peoples feelings about these situations.

[jslag]

Remember the Gap Concept. I would never call with AJ in that spot. What can you hope that he'd have? KQ? KJ? QJ?Anything else and it's pretty much A) you're dominated or B) it's a coin-flip with a small-mid pair or high cards and you're racing him for all your money.

It's way too close to the money for you to be calling raises with your measly AJ. Wait until you have a premium hand before you try and catch him being too aggressive.

Besides, you don't mind having smaller stacks call him and lose... that just bumps you up in the standings.

If this were during the rebuy period, then you could consider a call, but it's way too late to be jeopordizing your tournament with a marginal holding like AJ.

My two cents,

j.

[BuffaloSoldier]

Doug:

Not a professional, but will give some advice since I have had good luck in these things. Stop stealing on the bubble with aggressive stacks on your left. The tables should collapse soon and your situation may be better. One more person messes up and your EV increases greatly for trying to steal with these hands. On the bubble, only play top 3 or maybe top 4 hands... I have found that it helps to ask the question: "Is this the hand that I want to go out on?"... helps to add some perspective sometimes.

Mike