Uggggly spot with AJ -- 400NL

[Denutz]

CavMan,

How do you justify a push? I think you need to think about their hand range and what they'll call a push with that kotkis is ahead of.

Even donks can hit trips or a better two pair once in a while - do you really think AQ or AT is calling a push here? The possible flush draw might make a mistake and call it, but I'm more concerned about SB's holdings. Either he just hit a better TTP, is trying to control the size of the pot or is leading into us hoping for a raise.

When considering which cards we don't want to see on the river, I think we would probably need to include any Q or T (8) and any club (7 - taking out the already accounted for Q & T) - so 15 cards on the river might bust our hand, if it's not already beaten.

Both players have $150 in the pot, the pot is approaching $400 and each player has about $200 behind - now that I think about it, I guess a push is in order, considering that you're almost always calling the river unless a club hits. It's really the only play that will make the flush draws calling incorrect and you gotta hope that the other player (I don't like it) is on a weaker Ace or an Ace that just picked up an inside s8 draw. Agree?