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#11
10-18-2005, 03:19 PM
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Re: Good LAG Spot or Just Chip Spewing?
1150:70 = 16.5:1
pokenum -h kc kd - 5h 6s Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Kc Kd 1378058 80.48 328977 19.21 5269 0.31 0.806 6s 5h 328977 19.21 1378058 80.48 5269 0.31 0.194 Now, since these odds are from PF to the RIVER... and the fact that hero obviously improves to beat the overpair on later streets some percentage of the time (Particularly when flopping one pair or a straight draw), I think we can probably extrapolate that the odds of outflopping him are a substantially worse. Not to mention redraws when he DOES outflop him, particularly with two pair. If we go to factor in times when he outplays him after the flop....it might get a bit closer, but I imagine that the times it doesn't work probably offset any advantage there, anyway. 
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#12
10-18-2005, 04:08 PM
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Re: Good LAG Spot or Just Chip Spewing?
A+. you could not have captured my thoughts better. and so concise, no words. just A+, no two ways about it.
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#15
10-18-2005, 04:46 PM
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Re: Good LAG Spot or Just Chip Spewing?
Hey JFB,
[ QUOTE ] Effective stacks were 1500. Thanks for the reality check. It was pretty donkish. Sometimes happens to me at a live table with straddle this and 7/2 bounty that. Just the slap I needed. [/ QUOTE ] Preflop was fine, as long as you intend to use your position well and really pound favorable flops. This is one of those flops. You say that you think he'll fold an overpair. If that's the case, that's what I would try to make him do. If he calls, you have a ton of outs. As played, easy call on the turn. Hope it worked out. ML4L
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#16
10-18-2005, 04:54 PM
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Re: Good LAG Spot or Just Chip Spewing?
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop was fine, as long as you intend to use your position well and really pound favorable flops. [/ QUOTE ] If it's fine.. I think it's only VERY marginally so... [ QUOTE ] You say that you think he'll fold an overpair. [/ QUOTE ] Isn't this an argument AGAINST the pre-flop play? Unless this guy is pretty weak tight, or he thinks we are, I find it hard to believe that we can push him off his hand often enough, while at the same time getting paid off when we flop good, to make this worthwhile. It's probably close though, considering all the money already in the pot, and at least he has the button.
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#17
10-18-2005, 05:06 PM
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Re: Good LAG Spot or Just Chip Spewing?
i fold to the first raise, but definitely call the second raise when it comes back around. on the flop, you should push, given that it would only be about a pot-sized raise. get it in there when you have, what, 13 outs twice? by just calling, if the turn bricks now what? you can't call the 1k push.
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#18
10-18-2005, 09:34 PM
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Re: Good LAG Spot or Just Chip Spewing?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Good LAG Spot? [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Hero calls [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Hero calls. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Hero calls. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Hero calls. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] ML4L [/ QUOTE ]beat me to it.
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#20
10-18-2005, 10:19 PM
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Re: Good LAG Spot or Just Chip Spewing?
[ QUOTE ]
Hope it worked out. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah. An 8 came on the river and I ended up with a straight. Big surprise, he had AA. I actually posted this hand for a reason. A lot, it sometimes seems too many, of the hands posted here are ones where Hero played it right but ended up losing. Walking home from the club, I came to the conclusion that I had played this one pretty poorly and just gotten lucky. Thanks. And ML4L, I agree. Great post. Made a wonderful point I won't soon forget.
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