Should I fold the set??

SlyAK · #1 02-23-2004, 05:00 PM

I have just set down to the .50/1 NL= 100 max buy-in at TGC. After going through my blinds I have $98 and am dealt 3d 3s on the button. UTG+1 limps, MP limps, I limp... sb folds, BB checks. 4 people to the flop, pot= $4.50.

The flop is 9c 5s 3c. BB leads out and bets $4, UTG+1 calls... I intend to raise to $20 to protect against the flush.. but for some reason I accidentally min-raised to $8. (I'll blame the computer, although I must not have hit enter after typing $20 [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] ). The big blind moves all-in, (he has me covered.. barely though). UTG+1 folds...
What is my move and why??

Results to follow. Thanks in advance.

Sly

YoJimbo · #2 02-23-2004, 05:10 PM

Well, just look at the board. The only thing out there other than your trips is a bunch of draws, in which case getting them all in right now is the play you always want to make. I would probably be willing to say that he is sitting on two pair or something and believes it to be the best hand out there, or he's trying to bluff. Either way, I can't see not calling this one. Then again, I'm not the type who will really ever believe someone else has flopped trips in the same hand that I have, so I'm going to make them show me what they have.

Richie Rich · #3 02-23-2004, 05:25 PM

The fact that BB just limped in, and didn't raise pre-flop, means he most likely doesn't have an overpair like AA/KK/QQ. Instead, I'd say he's got at least top pair, perhaps two pair. JJ/10s would be a slight consideration. You must take into account that he's in the big blind and the flop was all rags...he may have felt very lucky to be holding 9x5x at the time.

Your mini-raise smells like flush draw or high overcards. Since you were willing to raise him on the flop, this would be the best time for him to come over the top and commit you to the pot (instead of giving you cheap draws). My guess is that he has two pair or higher set -- maybe JJ/10s. Since the former is more likely, I'd go all-in.

jhodges · #4 02-23-2004, 05:27 PM

I think he is either on a: multi-drawing hand(combo flush, straight, or pair) b: two pair c) trips d) top pair top kicker. Set over set is something like once every 6 months if you play alot. Why look for ghosts? Call.
JH

johnd192 · #5 02-23-2004, 06:20 PM

Did MP fold? If he didnt I would call with 2 callers and a huge pot. I would seriously wonder if the BB has gotten that aggressive with 2 pair but it is a possible play here.
Another strong possibility is jj/tt also. I wouldn't totally discount seeing 55 though or even 99; maybe even a flush draw if he plays them super aggressive. Even with them having the possible set I would still call even if mp folded since the only reason to play 33 from the button is to hope for a set to bust out someone...

SlyAK · #6 02-23-2004, 06:24 PM

Fistdantilus · #7 02-23-2004, 06:45 PM

No offense, but I don't understand why you are asking this question. If you can imagine a BETTER scenario for 33 (aside from him showing his cards before he pushes all-in), I'd like to hear it.

Fistdantilus

Still the Spank E · #8 02-23-2004, 06:58 PM

My first instinct is to say that you got lucky and that you are about to take the Big Blind's money despite yourself. A subsequent search of my instincts suggests pretty much the same thing.

Seriously, nothing in his betting screams pair of 9s or pair of 5s, so what else can you do but get yours all in there with his?

SlyAK · #9 02-24-2004, 01:28 AM

I thought about it and called. I thought he could make the play with a slow-played overpair, two pair (since he was in BB), a set, or 4 to the straight or flush. So, most of the time I should be ahead here, and of course I am playing 33 in the first place to hit the set. He shows 99 for the flopped top set. No 3 on the turn or river and my stack is gone. I would definitely play it the same way next time, and it is good to see that everyone agrees with that.

I do have another question though. When, if ever, would you fold a set on the flop? How about if you had pocket 8's, and the flop was T98 all diamonds. One person pushes in ahead of you, and everyone else folds. I would think there is a good chance that you would be behind here, and not getting odds to draw to the full house. Any thoughts on this scenario??

Sly

SlyAK · #10 02-24-2004, 04:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
No offense, but I don't understand why you are asking this question. If you can imagine a BETTER scenario for 33 (aside from him showing his cards before he pushes all-in), I'd like to hear it.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense taken... and since you asked, here is a better situation for 33.... and this is a real hand I played about 2 weeks ago, so details may be a little off. I was dealt 33 in one of the blinds, (BB I think). I check behind a ton of limpers, I think there are 7 to the flop. Flop is 33A... so I have quads. I check, it's checked around to LP who bets about the pot. I call and everyone else folds. The turn was another ace. He bets the pot, I raise, he re-raises, ( I know he has an ace now), and I push in. He calls, probably expecting to split the pot with me with the Aces full of 3's boat. The river was a rag, and he mucked, and typed in "wow".

Now, that's a good scenario for pocket 3's!! I get your point though. Set over set is very rare, and if I am going to fold a flopped set, then why the heck am I playing small pairs in the first place?? I think I wrote the post more because of disgust with losing then feeling that I played poorly. It was one of those situations when I had a strong "feeling" that HE HAD a better set, but I dont listen to feelings often when I am playing poker because they can often be wrong!

Sly