AJs in SB vs. unknown UTG raise

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What's wrong with the check/call,check/call,bet line here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing's wrong but I think a flop C/R gets more value because overcards aren't folding until the river. No way AK or AQ folds this hand until he's got no more cards left to draw. And he may even call a river bet unimproved, not willing to part from his big cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often do you think he has overcards here?

[milesdyson]

most players at 1/2 6-max don't cap AQ preflop.

i do not like this line because you are forced so often to call down the losing hand. if you could somehow use the information from the flop 3-bet to fold the losing hand later, it may be worth it.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
What's wrong with the check/call,check/call,bet line here?

[/ QUOTE ]
From Villain's perspective AK is ahead of more hands than it is behind and he probably has outs if he needs them. I really doubt Villain will manage to get away from AK/AQ even on the river. He may call down because he's a bad player who can't fold or because he's a good player who knows better. It's only the weak-tight in-between players that will often fold against a TAG in this situation.

Check-call, check-call, bet will very often cost you 1.5 BB versus a worse hand when Villain counters with bet, check behind, call.

There is also the real issue that TPTK is too good to lay down against a river raise without a read.

[milesdyson]

hey stellarwind

at this limit, whatever this guy capped preflop is getting bet on the turn like 90% of the time. many of these players will also bet AQ/AK on the river again.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
most players at 1/2 6-max don't cap AQ preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
This line of thought alludes to an important poker math concept that even many fine players don't understand.

Suppose 90% of players openraise and cap the best 3% of all their hands in this situation. Suppose 10% of players openraise and cap the best 15% of all their hands in this situation.

How likely is unknown Villain capper to have a top 3% hand? Hint: the answer is not 92%.

How likely is unknown Villain to belong to the LAG minority?

Principle: A completely unknown player who takes any very aggressive action is much more likely to be a LAG or maniac than you might expect.

[POKhER]

bet the flop, this way you can be raised but never 3bet on when behind.

On the turn/River i'm wondering when we can let this go, I don't see us ever winning this hand... Specially to unknown(I assume you will notice a maniac therefore have a read!).

Can we fold turn?
Can we fold river?
Do you think we'll win if we call down?!?!! ARGHHHH!

Fold the. . . meh i can't actually answer.
this has been a grunch.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
hey stellarwind

at this limit, whatever this guy capped preflop is getting bet on the turn like 90% of the time. many of these players will also bet AQ/AK on the river again.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's not my recollection of my 1/2 short days, but everyone can judge this for themselves. Maybe Paradise was more passive than Party.

If you believe you are right then checkraise the turn. This hand is too good to be giving Villain a free ride. The fears in this thread that a 1/2 player is going to make a good fold are overdone. At worst you won't lose much by raising because he has several outs.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Principle: A completely unknown player who takes any very aggressive action is much more likely to be a LAG or maniac than you might expect.

[/ QUOTE ]
i understand this.

90% cap 3% -> 0.9 * 0.03 = 0.037
10% cap 15% -> 0.1 * 0.15 = 0.015

0.037/(0.037 + 0.015) = ~71%

so you're seeing a top 3% hand about 70% of the time here, if we assume your numbers. however this is only useful when the guy is an utterly complete unknown. we will have more info the second we see a showdown or we see him raise several hands before the flop.

that said, if the guy is the 90% guy or the 10% guy, i want to play wa/wb vs. the 90% guy and i want to 10% guy to hang himself by continuing to bet. if we are ahead, he usually has 3 or less outs (flush draws or KQ basically the only exceptions).

edit: yes, the paradise 1/2 sh game is a lot more passive than the party game.

[Wynton]

I like the pf. But after that I prefer either capping the flop or c/r the turn.

The advantage of capping the flop is that villain is definitely going to call it, and he may not give you as much credit for a hand. Advantage of c/r the turn is that, by that point, AK is not going to fold for one more bet.

Incidentally, I think that at the lower limits it is legitimate to be concerned that AK might fold prematurely in these kinds of hands. In fact, my experience is that more people at 5/10 are willing to go to a showdown with AK than at the lower limits, for whatever reason.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
i want to 10% guy to hang himself by continuing to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
You give up too much by not punishing this player. It's probably going to be very hard for him to get away from overcards or second pair heads up. Meanwhile you lose little or nothing by putting in an extra bet versus a more passive player because you are still probably a small favorite to win the hand.

Mathematical side discussion about completely unknown players:

[ QUOTE ]
90% cap 3% -> 0.9 * 0.03 = 0.037
10% cap 15% -> 0.1 * 0.15 = 0.015

0.037/(0.037 + 0.015) = ~71%

[/ QUOTE ]
90% * 3% = 0.027 (and not 0.037)
10% * 15% = 0.015

Probabilty that player is a "10-percenter": 0.015/(0.015 + 0.027) = 35.7%. Remember that postflop. On average an unknown Villain who caps preflop will be much more aggressive than a random opponent in the game.

Probability that player does not have a top 3% hand: 0.012/(0.015 + 0.027) = 28.6%. Why 0.012 and not 0.015 in the numerator? Because even a LAG can have a premium hand.

[ QUOTE ]
however this is only useful when the guy is an utterly complete unknown. we will have more info the second we see a showdown or we see him raise several hands before the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Absolutely. But there will always be completely unknown opponents and it is worth discussing how to play them.