More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!

smartalecc5 · #1 12-09-2005, 01:09 AM

I'd call the turn bet without doing any calculations.

jba · #2 12-09-2005, 01:13 AM

how can UTG be raising with such a wide range with an 11 PFR?

Peter Harris · #3 12-09-2005, 06:45 AM

Odd that this thread didn't get more comments, it's a tricky decision for lime.

I mean, UTG may have AJ and hero is drawing dead to a J, it's a nasty board and few would raise here without either a J or a set. If it's either lime is dead to the J.

8.5-1 (less rake) isn't really enough to draw, i don't think, and do we want to invest another 1BB if we have to showdown? Considering the river action may be SB bets and UTG raises hero may have to fold to SB's river donk too.

I'd say your outs are 3 jacks (i don't count the flush draw worthy of concern here, you have the A :clubs: so someone would have to have exactly QJ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or QT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or JT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] here methinks).

I would assign 1 out to the remaining 2 tens in case someone has a set or the T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] completes an unlikely flush, and i'd assign 0.5 outs to the remaining aces as 2 pair may not cut it either. That's 4.5 outs; getting 8.5-1, you stand to win about 10% of the time if you hit the river and the pot would need to be laying 9-1 for you to take it; since 0.5BB at least is being raked, i think this is a turn fold.

Does anyone dispute my reasoning? Does anyone think we can make up 2BB of implied odds?

gonzopro · #4 12-09-2005, 09:32 AM

Peter, thanks for your reply. I thought this hand would get some more discussion. At first glance it looks like an obvious call. But you are assigning the majority of outs to jacks. If a jack falls, how likely is it to win the pot for us (vs split) and how does this affect the number outs we can assign them?

Peter Harris · #5 12-09-2005, 09:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If a jack falls, how likely is it to win the pot for us (vs split) and how does this affect the number outs we can assign them?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, Miller discusses cutting outs when you are pretty sure there's going to be a split. The problem here is you have to work out if someone is already holding a J - even if they do, opponents will need an A for the chop - i think for UTG to play this way AK and JJ are possible given the player's nature. In a way both shaft you because you're behind in both.

With 4 unseen jacks, i would assign no more than 2 outs to them, 3 at the utmost; since either a) one or two are already gone and b) if someone else has an A you're splitting this devalues them greatly. I know i said 3 outs earlier but the more i think about this the more it's a turn fold...

such a tricky hand. we need some MHHUSHers to read this. Btw, it's already on the shortlist for the digest.

Pete

oreogod · #6 12-09-2005, 10:18 AM

Im a MHHUSH poster. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Peter Harris · #7 12-09-2005, 10:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Im a MHHUSH poster. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

i apologise profusely oreo. I knew that too, for shame.

Spicymoose · #8 12-09-2005, 10:29 AM

It seems like your weak tight villain has AJ, JJ, or if you are lucky, AK. SB could have a wide range of stuff, but I guessed he has something that looks a bit like 99, KQs, QTs-Q9s, T9s, KQo, QTo-Q9o.

Unless you can find some other probably hands for villain, it is looking like we have 5% equity in this pot. That would be around 2.5 outs, which would make the title of your post pretty false.

The pot is 9 BB, and if we wanted to call, we would need at least 10% equity.

Fold.

TomBrooks · #9 12-09-2005, 10:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If a jack falls, how likely is it to win the pot for us (vs split) and how does this affect the number outs we can assign them?

[/ QUOTE ]Yeah, Miller discusses cutting outs when you are pretty sure there's going to be a split.

[/ QUOTE ]
Where can this be found?

[ QUOTE ]
With 4 unseen jacks, i would assign no more than 2 outs to them, 3 at the utmost; since either a) one or two are already gone and b) if someone else has an A you're splitting this devalues them greatly.

[/ QUOTE ]
This makes sense to me. I'll revise my estimate from 4 outs to an optimistic 3. You would want 15:1 for that. Your're unlikely to collect three more bets from each of your opponents on the river if a J came, and if you did it would almost certainly be because someone else had the nut straight for a split.

Although it's a small chance, the possibility of someone making a flush detracts a little from Hero's hand also. I would say the chance of an Ace or Ten being good makes up for that factor, so I'll call that a wash.

Regardless, I now think this is a Fold.

gonzopro · #10 12-09-2005, 09:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
how can UTG be raising with such a wide range with an 11 PFR?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question and I'll answer yours when you answer mine. J/K. For some reason, his PFR decreases as you get closer to the button and his VPIP stays about the same. From UTG his PFR is 22.8, MP 17.2, CO 14.1, Button 11.1, SB 1.1, BB 7.1. How's that for odd? This strategy has disastrous results for him as his WR UTG is (.40) vs Button .23.