AJs in SB vs. unknown UTG raise

[Monty Cantsin]

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Mathematical side discussion about completely unknown players:

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90% cap 3% -> 0.9 * 0.03 = 0.037
10% cap 15% -> 0.1 * 0.15 = 0.015

0.037/(0.037 + 0.015) = ~71%

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90% * 3% = 0.027 (and not 0.037)
10% * 15% = 0.015

Probabilty that player is a "10-percenter": 0.015/(0.015 + 0.027) = 35.7%. Remember that postflop. On average an unknown Villain who caps preflop will be much more aggressive than a random opponent in the game.

Probability that player does not have a top 3% hand: 0.012/(0.015 + 0.027) = 28.6%. Why 0.012 and not 0.015 in the numerator? Because even a LAG can have a premium hand.


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Someone please tell me that I don't have to be able to do this to become an expert player. Please, I'm begging.

/mc