I was ruined by a downswing and advice.

hello.

i have been a reader of these forums for quite awhile now, and have been an avid poker player (Limit, .50/1, 1/2, 2/4 Party) for close to two years, playing about 500 hands a day or more. about 8 months ago i went through a pretty lengthy downswing, and decided to make some changes to my game; i started folding when i knew i was beat. i immediately began having greater success at poker than i had before... i had never really paid too much heed to the stats that i was compiling in Pokertracker, just number of hands played, my winrate, and my opponents' stats of course for observation purposes while playing.

over this course of time, i played around 90,000 hands and averaged a winrate of 1.9 BB/100 for the various limits that i was playing, and had a WtSD rate of 26, W$SD of 63. i recently made a stat post where i was roasted mercilessly about these two little numbers, saying i was folding too many winning hands, that i must have just been running hot, etc.

so, obviously i set out to make a few changes, started trying to see more hands down to showdown to get these stupid little numbers back to where it was the general consensus that they should be (around 32/52) and started getting hammered... i went back and did a little research and during the time before i made the initial adjustments to my game, my WtSD/W$SD was 32/54, winrate was .4bb/100; so to me, it seems when i started folding when i knew i was beat i improved... after the stat post i made, i went on a downswing that i can't seem to shake, which is about to cross the 400BB mark, and it seems i have completely forgotten how to play poker. i know i am tilting now, i am no longer having fun playing poker, and am getting bled dry because i don't know when to fold, when to stay anymore... my preflop game is still good, my postflop game is, though falling into the accepted 3/2.5/2 range. it has been about 40000 hands since i have won anything significant and am about to hang it up (well, i will be forced to due to the state of my bankroll). i took a long break and thought i was coming back fresh, i guess it was not long enough. any suggestions? should i just go back to folding when i knew i was beat and say screw the damn numbers and stats, against the advice that i received? i honestly don't know what i can do at this point to become a winning player again, and am nervous that i am ruined as a poker player because of all of this.

thanks for letting me complain

Doug

[ QUOTE ]
hello.

i have been a reader of these forums for quite awhile now, and have been an avid poker player (Limit, .50/1, 1/2, 2/4 Party) for close to two years, playing about 500 hands a day or more. about 8 months ago i went through a pretty lengthy downswing, and decided to make some changes to my game; i started folding when i knew i was beat. i immediately began having greater success at poker than i had before... i had never really paid too much heed to the stats that i was compiling in Pokertracker, just number of hands played, my winrate, and my opponents' stats of course for observation purposes while playing.

over this course of time, i played around 90,000 hands and averaged a winrate of 1.9 BB/100 for the various limits that i was playing, and had a WtSD rate of 26, W$SD of 63. i recently made a stat post where i was roasted mercilessly about these two little numbers, saying i was folding too many winning hands, that i must have just been running hot, etc.

so, obviously i set out to make a few changes, started trying to see more hands down to showdown to get these stupid little numbers back to where it was the general consensus that they should be (around 32/52) and started getting hammered... i went back and did a little research and during the time before i made the initial adjustments to my game, my WtSD/W$SD was 32/54, winrate was .4bb/100; so to me, it seems when i started folding when i knew i was beat i improved... after the stat post i made, i went on a downswing that i can't seem to shake, which is about to cross the 400BB mark, and it seems i have completely forgotten how to play poker. i know i am tilting now, i am no longer having fun playing poker, and am getting bled dry because i don't know when to fold, when to stay anymore... my preflop game is still good, my postflop game is, though falling into the accepted 3/2.5/2 range, HORRIBLE. it has been about 40000 hands since i have won anything significant and am about to hang it up (well, i will be forced to due to the state of my bankroll). i took a long break and thought i was coming back fresh, i guess it was not long enough. any suggestions? should i just go back to folding when i knew i was beat and say screw the damn numbers and stats, against the advice that i received? i honestly don't know what i can do at this point to become a winning player again, and am nervous that i am ruined as a poker player because of all of this.

thanks for letting me complain

Doug

[/ QUOTE ]

edited to add the word HORRIBLE

[Bez]

Stats can be good indicators at times but are not the be all and end all. There are no perfect stats. Maybe your playing style allowed you to gauge more easily when you were behind than other players.

Try going down limits and revert back to your old style (if possible). When you are convinced you can beat the game again, try to improve your game a step at a time. Don't make wholesale changes. Call down if you've got a valid reason to do so, not to doctor your stats.

If you still don't enjoy the game then quit, you'll have no valid reason to keep wasting your time.

You should never let the advice of others change your style unless you yourself are ready to maek that change. While the numbers you posted may have been weak tight, you are only going to put yourself into situations you have no clue on how to handle if you just made the jump into a more aggressive (compared to your old style) playing style.

Loosen up a bit but keep your pace is what I would recommend because in the end you are the one paying for it.

[mosquito]

I would like to make an intelligent reply here, but every time I start it feels like I'm starting a novel.

There are not enough specifics to even attempmt to pinpoint something relevant, there are several possibilities at work here.

But one brief stab, if your good folds are before the river then your play may be more or less fine, except that you are missing some fairly small edges. Whether you should be seeking those edges is another matter, the forum consensus will probably be that you should (bold prediction). There are arguments for not seeking the edges that could apply in fairly limited cases.

Bez: "Stats can be good indicators at times but are not the be all and end all. There are no perfect stats. Maybe your playing style allowed you to gauge more easily when you were behind than other players."

see, this is honestly how it felt to me. by no means did i consider myself an expert player, but i felt that i had pretty good "instincts" about when i was beat, and felt that maybe it was just my playing style as it was, and it was working for me.

TYG: you are right. i was not ready to make those changes, and as things were i was very comfortable playing this way, and winning, but was afraid of becoming complacent and being exactly what you said, "weak-tight". also, i think my problem was that i got greedy, thinking that 2bb/100 was ok but that these things that i was supposedly doing wrong would add another 2bb/100 to my winrate. which they probably would, but it is not as easy as just calling down for the heck of it to get my stats "correct", which i realize now, but am woefully unaware of which particular edges need to be pushed.

mosquito: my "folded to river bet" hovers between 50% - 55%...that said, extremely rare is the time when i am being devastated by folding the winning hand in a large pot, and i am never folding to one bet on the river in a large pot. in marginal situations in a small pot heads up, i probably tend to fold those though unless i have a rock-solid read on an opponent. i guess with experience i will begin to be able to identify those edges more clearly.

thank you all for your thoughtful advice, just reading these posts begin to make me feel better about things.

reread Lee Jones' book it'll make you more conservative and focused.

[MTBlue]

It is entirely possible that you are running bad and playing poorly. Stats aren't the end all be all of cards but you've got to realize that folding in all marginal river situations is not positive expective value and calling in all marginal river situations isn't +EV either. I advise a more mixed strategy and not worrying about that much about other player stats. With greater aggression factors your win at showdown percentage should go down b/c you are generating bigger pots before the river. Just taking two or three stats and trying to make your game fit those is foolish. There are multiple ways to skin a cat much to some peoples displeasure.

[Mike]

You must play your game and not try to imitate someone elses playing style. Even if you go as far as the kicked around 'weak tight', there are a number of very successful weak tight players. Play your game, not someone elses and then you can decide what to do with your game. gl

[brick]

Unfortunatly I'm going through the same situation as you.
I had been winning for 4 years with a couple of big downswings, but now I have been losing for 6 months.

I too am worried that I may have to give up or at least really limit the amount of poker that I play. I really enjoy playing but don't enjoy losing.

I think there area couple reasons that I'm losing now.
1) Games are getting tougher and my edge too small.
2) Playing too loose.
3) Tilting.

Even though I have have been activly trying to avoid playing too loose and avoid titling I still continue to lose.

How will I deal with this?
A) I think my next step will be to limit my poker play.
B) When I play I'm going to play extra tight. (some of the biggest winners play tight, look at the post in High Stakes about PP winners)
C) When I feel frusterated I'm going to think about A and B and realize that I have things under control. I'll play until I'm ready to leave. I'm going to fight off any emotion.