ATTN: MTT Gurus - Am I misapplying this concept?

[ThrillFactor]

not to further your point, but I'd have 9000 if i win.

I'm still thinking about the rest.

[MLG]

adding is quite obviously not my strong point [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

[ThrillFactor]

Alright, perhaps I'm just letting my recent extended results influence some thought patterns here.

I've read the literature. I've been around this forum for 6 months. I seen some numbers thrown around. And the gist of it all is that in most situations, only an expert player can afford to throw away a 10% edge. I'm certainly not an expert player, so that means I probably need to get my chips in as fast as possible in nearly every mid-tourney 55/45 I stumble into. Of course that doesn't apply very early or around bubble time.

I do understand that nearly everyone who makes the final table in a large MTT has to win 4 or 5 of these close ones to be there. If you're lucky, you lose one only after winning 3. In that case you have enough chips in front of you to weather it. If you're me, then you either lose your first and that's it, or you win 1 or 2 but then lose 2 in a row and that's it again.

Why do these damn things have to be so much fun to play?


It IS just a matter of time before I win my 4 or 5 close ones and you guys are giving me some final table sweat.

Right?

[sdplayerb]

i am willing to give up some chip ev in the midpoint of a tournament to keep a workable stack.
when you get less than around 12-13x you are pretty committed to a hand when you raise, thus you can't really try to steal blinds until you get desparate.
while at like 17x+ or so, if people are playing tight, you can do some stealing and still have the ability to fold if you get caught by another decent size stack.

so i think chips won are worth less than chips lost.
due to this i probably want like 10-20% advantage on my money so i don't get into a more desparate situation where it becomes somewhat of a luck contest.

so from a theoretical perspective, yes my chip stack will be part of my decision process.
i'm not saying you should fold based solely upon this, but if it gets at all close, i will fold if a loss puts me under certain, what i will call, inflection points.

i also think you are too worried about your chips vs everybody else's. i think # of BB is far more important.

SD

[sdplayerb]

if i am getting 2-1 on a 50/50 the only way i'm not calling is when i'm 2nd in chips with 3 people left and the 3rd place guy is just about out.

you just can't give away that kind of edge.
nobody, nobody, is that good.

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
THE SITUATION:

Down to top 20% of the field.
My stack is about 7500
Average is about 5000
Blinds 150/300
I have KQo in the BB, folded to SB (average, unexceptional player) who pushes for about 1400 - 1100 for me to call.
I've got to believe his range of hands here is huge. If I win, I pad my stack even more. If I lose, it doesn't hurt that much. It takes my about 5 seconds to call. He shows J7s, so the read was good, but he wins the hand.

Cards happen, but the question here is should I have been calling here in the first place? Nice healthy stack with a good, but not great, chance to improve it. Call or wait till I can be the aggressor?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure you should call. Getting about 3-2 pot odds. The SB was desperate and can have a lot of hands you beat. If he happens to have a better hand than you, then you are likely not far behind.


[ QUOTE ]
AN ORBIT LATER:

I have 6000-6200 chips, average is about 5500 at this point.
Blinds still 150/300
I make it 900 to go from MP with pocket 9s. Player on my immediate left pushes for 3K - folded to me, 2100 to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting 2-1 pot odds, this would generally be a call. Getting less than 2-1 is where it gets more tricky.


[ QUOTE ]
I've been sitting with this guy for 2 hours, and though we can argue the merit of my read if you guys want, I've got him squarely on TT-66, AK-AJ, or KQs.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case it's an easy call. Even if getting less than 2-1.

[ QUOTE ]
3 months ago I would have laid this down without a second thought and taken my slightly below average stack and gone back to work (hell, 3 months ago I would have limped with the 99 to begin with).

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't make a habit of laying down when getting 2-1 or better on an allin, headsup.

[ QUOTE ]
Now, I realize that I'm getting greater that 2 to 1 on my call and I'm a small favorite to boot. So I grit my teeth, call even though I've been losing every time I put myself in these situations, see his AKo turned up (read was good), watch the K hit the flop, and am left with a 1/2 average stack.

[/ QUOTE ]


Shallow money poker is a crapshoot.


[ QUOTE ]
Cards happen, I know. But the question is, am I applying these concepts at the right times?

[/ QUOTE ]


You made good calls in both hands. That gives you an edge over a lot of your opponents that fold here.

[ QUOTE ]
At the two moments in question, given my good position relative the the rest of the field, am I risking too much with too small a chance of winning? Should I be waiting for the 60/40 hands with 1 - 1.5x the average stack? Should the 55/45s be saved for when I'm short-stacked or have >2x the average?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on the price being offered. Price matters. Being 55/45 dog is not a close gamble when getting 2-1 on your money. Being a 60/40 dog is not a close gamble when getting over 2-1. Being a 60/40 dog getting 3-2 pot odds is a close gamble.

[ QUOTE ]
Am I picking the right spots to make the close gambles?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think either example was a close gamble.

[willie]

-- edit, sorry i didn't see how large this thread had gotten, i typically like to respond and then take a look around and see how others feel, i may elaborate in a bit.


your read was spot on both times

i feel that the first hand is a pretty easy call

the second hand..... it comes down to what you said earlier, you play these things to finish high, and to finish high sometimes you have to gamble.

[ThrillFactor]

.

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just wondering if sometimes we don't get too caught up in who's the favorite and pot odds and EV and Sklanski dollars and the mathematically correct plays, to stop and consider what happens to our chances to do well if we lose a particular hands - which we will just slightly less than 1/2 the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a tournament, the math that matters is tournament ev. Away from the big money, tournament ev = pot odds. Closer to the big money, tournament ev = pot odds + other considerations. The impact this has is that near the big money, close gambles in terms of pot odds can become negative tournament ev and hence become a fold. Your second hand was not a close gamble and had positive tourney ev.

EDIT: I think Fossilman has referred to this in the past as
cash ev and chip ev. So in those terms, away from the big money, cash ev = chip ev. etc.