AKo at final table of Empire $50K Guaranteed...

ThrillFactor · #1 10-25-2004, 03:47 PM

Results are not important, my question concerns whether or not my play was correct and did I have other options?

My background:

I am very inexperienced at MTTs; I have only begun playing them to learn for the last couple of months. I am a solid, consistent winner at small-stakes limit games, however my no-limit background is non-existent except for said MTTs and studying these forums. In lower buy-in MTTs (up to $20) I am regularly in the top 20% (about 8 or 9 out of every 10)of the field and reach the cash about 20% of the time. 3 final tables including this one. This is only my second stab at a higher buy-in tourney. Other attempt was this same tourney 2 or 3 weeks ago when I finished 80th out of 440 or so.

About this hand:

payouts: 6th - $2500, 5th - $3000, 4th - $3500, 3rd - $5000, 2nd - $7500, 1st - $12,500

My mindset: while very excited about being in this spot, I was playing well, thinking decisions thru, and still playing a rational game. I was more than happy with $2500, having done better that I ever expected to, and though $3000 or $3500 would be that much better... I always play to win. When I pushed, I was willing to chance a coin-toss if called to put myself in position to make a run at the final 3.

Range of hands I put MP on: slowplayed big PP, poorly played mid PP, looking for a cheap flop with a small PP, A-rag, 2 face cards, or suited-connectors looking again for a cheap flop.

My options: check and look at the flop, small raise that would cripple my stack should I miss the flop, or push.

I push thinking that I'm a big favorite if called over all hands but the PPs. I'm only about a 10 to 12% dog to the pairs, and the all-in may get a medium or small pair to fold. Coin-toss to double up and make a run at it if called.

I really think pushing is the only correct option here, but I welcome critical analysis of my entire thought process.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (6 handed)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button (t105203)
SB (t87939)
Hero (t33326)
UTG (t25686)
MP (t64283)
CO (t72563)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, MP calls t3000, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero raises to t33326 (All-In), MP calls t30326.

Flop: (t68152) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t68152) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t68152) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t68152
Main Pot: t68152 (t68152), between Hero and MP. > Pot won by MP (t68152).

Results in white below: 
Hero has Ad Kc (one pair, threes).
MP has Ts Th (two pair, tens and threes).
Outcome: MP wins t68152.

davidross · #2 10-25-2004, 05:56 PM

I am pushing here every time. You need to double up a few times in order to win this tournament, and AK is as good a hand as any (well almost any) to do it. Your other option is just to check, and try a check-raise if you hit, but you might not get any chips out of him if an A or K flops.

dogmeat · #3 10-25-2004, 06:46 PM

I think David covers it here, but I would not check preflop. I would either go all-in (80%) or made a 3000 reraise the other 20%. I might get some more info - he might raise all-in or limp and check the flop. Either way, you don't have to get all-in on this hand. If you check and then fold to a big raise on the flop, so what, you still have 33k. If you raise 3k and get reraised all-in, or get bet into on the flop for more than the size of the pot, you can muck and still have 30k.

You know more about the player than we do, but I am more sensitive to busting-out here than others might be. I don't really want to risk busting out here if possible, because you can probably move up a spot or two just by blinding off. Sure, that is not first place, but take it from somebody that makes a lot of final tables: (1)it is really tough to finish first even if you are the chip leader (2) if you sit with last or second last stack, but can blind your way into a coupe spots higher than you currently are, it is good to do so.

I will probably get flamed for part 2 there, but that is how I play, and it works for me.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

gergery · #4 10-25-2004, 06:55 PM

The hand is fairly straightforward. You have 2 lines to take:
1) Push all in. AK is EV+ vs. most hands, and even vs. TT you’re not making a big mistake since you’re only slightly EV- vs. him. Note that you have a 42.5% win equity vs. TT, so this is NOT a coinflip. You are a 1.3 to 1 underdog.
2) Check and see a cheap flop. This has value since if you do catch an A or K, you have good slowplay chances to trap him, and if you don’t catch A or K there is a good chance you are behind and if not you might still win. And if he has a pair that would call you then you’d prefer not to push.

As to which is better, it depends a lot on the table and players. Earlier in the tourney when you still need to get lots of chips, I’d go with #1, because chips=dollars at that point and there is no add’l value in survival. But at the final table, waiting til someone else busts has significant value. So I’d probably have checked here and seen a cheap flop. With 10xbb you can afford to wait and try to get chips in when you know you’re further ahead, and there is still good chances the others will blow themselves up.

Some things to think about:
Most important to figure out what his limp means –had he done this before? Was he tight overall? At this stage, most good players are raising to just pickup the blinds, so the limp is alittle odd. The range of hands you put him on is literally half the deck – you can do better.

How have the button & SB been playing? This guy probably doesn’t want to risk a confrontation with them, which is why he might have playing this hand conservatively. So they are providing protection to you, but once they fold, that is gone.

There is another player shorter stacked than you – he will feel pressure and all things being equal should bust before you, so risking it up now reduces your 5th place EV, b/c you have more to lose.

The more some of your opponents are willing to gamble it up, the more I’d check here, since when they bust you make $.

How easy is it to steal at this table? The easier it is to steal, the more I’m inclined to call not push.

How does your opponent play? If he bets/raises too much, I like calling to trap him but will fold if I miss and he bets. If he calls too much, I’ll push knowing he’ll call with many worse hands. If he folds too much, I’ll call and then bluff raise any pot knowing he’ll miss most of them.

Play to maximize your $ earned, not to win. That’s not always the same thing.

--Greg

gergery · #5 10-25-2004, 08:03 PM

I hate a raise here. It’s either push or fold. Raising just gets more money in the pot when you’re out of position and need to improve to be happy (which only happens 1 in 3x). Any raise that’s enough to get a fold is big enough to pot commit you.

when out of position, I am a big fan of 1) keeping the pot smaller, and 2) making your decisions easier.

And it depends heavily on individual opponents, but I’d weight villain’s hand slightly more towards a PP before I’d put him on Ax or suited connectors here. His limp with bigstacks behind him means he’s may very well have to play his hand out of position, and he must contend shorter stacks or blinds reraising him. PP’s are best for both those situations since they can 1) make clear decisions on flop, and 2) handle getting all in preflop.

If he was on button or there were other limpers ahead of him, then I’d weight Ax, suited conn more heavily because those hands might need a turn card to be happy, and PP’s might have raised to win blinds in those spots.

And if you’re up against a bigger stack with a PP, getting all-in is alittle less happy for you.

--Greg

ThrillFactor · #6 10-25-2004, 10:25 PM

You're right in that the range of hands I put him on at the time is much too broad. At the time it seemed to me that he was either setting a big trap or had a hand he'd like to see the flop with but was probably willing to lay down without a fight. Without a doubt, my hand-reading must improve if I'm going to become a consistent final-tabler. The small-stakes limit stuff that I'm so used to playing is very ABC and even the worst of my mistakes can only cost me 2 or 3 BB.

That said, my thinking at the table was that I wanted to get called. I wondered afterwards (which is why I posted this) if that logic was flawed. Is this a situation where if I'm called, I'll always be behind?

I absolutely DON'T like the idea of a smallish reraise. That would definitely make me a favorite to go out in sixth should my flop not hit. Checking let's me survive in fifth place (though not by much) if I miss. Pushing gives me the possibility of doubling-up - though if my NEW line of thinking is correct, I'll only get called when I'm favorite to be knocked out - or gathering the 7500 in dead money.

Close call, I guess. Though I must admit, now that I think about it a little more, the last few orbits consisted of almost entirely blind steals - maybe 3 flops in the last 15 to 20 hands - all based on sizable bets (no min-raises). Could be that MP is actually a thinking player and was onto this pattern, thought his TT was good, and set a trap for someone's steal attempt. If that's the case, well done.

Any other comments are welcome.