river action with KK

steveyz · #1 12-03-2005, 04:17 AM

Villian is a 16/9/1.6 TAG

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (7 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, MP2 calls, CO folds, Hero caps, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (8 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, MP2 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB caps, Hero calls.

River: (16 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

What's the plan?

#2 12-03-2005, 04:42 AM

There is only one hand that makes sense for the villain, and its not AA or AK, since he wouldve probably raised the flop, and he doesnt have a flush since he isnt 3 betting QdJd preflop. The only hand that makes sense here is 99. Since you raised in the SB, the villain may of thought that 3 betting out of the BB was better than calling with 99 since a 3 bet has an outside chance of folding the two limpers. This is not a bad play since the villain has to call one sb anyways, and both limpers limped from middle position and beyond meaning they both are likely to be very weak(and thus more likely to fold), so investing an extra small bet to 3 bet in this spot with position on the initial raiser, in an attempt to get this pot heads up, with a lot of dead money in the pot, is something a TAG will do.
The plan on the river is this: you have two lines to choose from, bet with the intention of 3 betting or check with the intention of raising. If you think the villain will raise the river if you bet, then the bet/3bet line is the superior strategy IMO.

Jeff W · #3 12-03-2005, 05:36 AM

I would checkraise. 99 seems more likely than AA(44 is impossible) or AK because I'd expect a raise from either of those on the flop. A solid opponent might not raise your river bet with 99 or AK, but he will certainly bet it and payoff a checkraise.

goofball · #4 12-03-2005, 06:00 AM

Steve-

I think checkraise is the best line as well. He's going to be fairly certain you don't have the flush for the same reason you're certain he doesn't. Given that if you bet the river after he caps if he's thinking he'll realize 9s full isn't good very often and not worth a raise and AK is barely worth a call. Along the same lines if you checkraise and he 3bets you I think it's probably wise to just call.

SpaceAce · #5 12-03-2005, 11:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think checkraise is the best line as well. He's going to be fairly certain you don't have the flush for the same reason you're certain he doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Flush = irrelevant.

I like a river check-raise, too. This guy likes his hand and I love to win extra bets.

SpaceAce

DcifrThs · #6 12-03-2005, 02:54 PM

are you worried about eh flush??

or are you worried he doesn't have a good enough hand to raise your river bet?

this seems like a clear river bet/3bet.

Barron

goofball · #7 12-03-2005, 03:01 PM

Dcifr

Personally I'm worried about the latter. With this guy's stats it's likely he knows steve's stats as well and that he's tag. What do you put a good tag player on after all that action, PF and on the turn, that is beat by 99/AK?

DcifrThs · #8 12-03-2005, 03:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Dcifr

Personally I'm worried about the latter. With this guy's stats it's likely he knows steve's stats as well and that he's tag. What do you put a good tag player on after all that action, PF and on the turn, that is beat by 99/AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

why such an odd question?

why can't he have AK/99?

Barron

steveyz · #9 12-03-2005, 03:07 PM

I'm worried about winning the most from 99/AK and losing the least to AA. Although after I cap pf and 3-bet the turn, I think chances are extremely slim that he has AK, so it's either 99 or AA. I'm not quite sure which one is more likely. I think that if he has 99 he's most likely not gonna raise the river.

steveyz · #10 12-03-2005, 03:09 PM

I think he's asking the question from the point of view of my opponent, who is a solid TAG. If you had 99 here, would you raise a river bet?

Would you even cap the turn with AK? What hand would I cap pf with that you'd still be beating?