99 sflush draw against very very loose villain

[boondockst]

Villain is guy with the flush in this post HERE

Basically if you dont look he CALLED $72 in a NL100 game with a jack high flush on a board with trips on it (quads and a KK boat were out)...so



Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

SB ($99.00)
BB ($20.00)
UTG ($22.60)
MP ($139.00)
CO ($106.13)
Hero ($110.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($3.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $1</font>, Hero ???


Before you scream RAISE and bloat this pot, this guy is absolutely insane. Edit: He just check-called a 10xBB bet on the river with 4th pair. If he bet this flop, even only a buck, he is likely not folding to any kind of a raise i'd feel safe making. So if you do call/raise, what's your plan for the following on the turn

<ul type="square">[*]An offsuit six or jack (for a straight)?[*]Another overcard?[*]A non s-flush heart?[*]A nine (yuck?)[/list]

[boondockst]

OK! Since that was so interesting...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

SB ($99.00)
BB ($20.00)
UTG ($22.60)
MP ($139.00)
CO ($106.13)
Hero ($110.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($3.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $1</font>, Hero calls $1, BB folds.

Turn: ($5.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $8</font>, Hero ???

tough to say against a maniacal opponent.... if you are really scared of him you can always just call down and hope to hit your straightflush when you know you have him hammerd [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]... but i usually will raise to about 10 here?.... if he just calls i'd put him on a high flush draw and buckle up if 4th heart comes (assuming its not the 6 or J)... if you hit your straight i'd assume you are safe but it really all depends on his cards i guess... VERY tough to say against maniac like this

[boondockst]

as played, what's the move on the turn?

fold

[boondockst]

fold???? against a guy who calls 3xBB bets on the river with king high? Or try

"Fold. He has XX or XX and your odds of that are XX and the river wont _____"

I dont post "KK to a raise blah blah" posts so dont treat it like one.

I think that your smart move is to call down this hand. If he really is as much a maniac as you say, he could have any number of hands that you have beat. Ah and anything, KQJ of hearts, maybe with a 7 or 8. Maybe he has 66 with a heart. Maybe he has a made flush, or a pair of tens, but based on your description, the odds are just as good he could be betting a ton of hands you're behind. Even if he has a hand you are behind, you still have outs, and a J or 6 of hearts could easily win you a huge pot if he does have a flush or a flush draw (especially the nut flush draw). So, I think when you range in all of these factors, it is +EV to stay in the pot.

I favor a call here rather than a raise. Given that you just aren't sure where you stand in this pot, I'd take the river card assuming that you can probably get a bunch of money in if you improve. If you're behind now against a maniac, a raise on the turn could trigger a reraise that would give you an uncomfortable decision.

You don't want to fold, because this opponent has way too many hands you could be beating here. Raising opens you up to having to make a very tough decision when you won't really be sure where you stand. Seeing the river has value here, as you have the chance to improve to a hand that get all your opponent's money in the pot with the absolute nuts.

I suppose if I was sure the villian wouldn't come back over the top of my raise, I'd lean towards a raise, but against a maniac like this one, I don't think you can be at all sure.

[-Skeme-]

Call flop. Fold turn.

[boondockst]

The Villain was quick to bet if checked to, and called most bets on the flop/turn/quite a few rivers with king high. He wasn't prone to reraise without an extremely strong hand. I chose to raise the turn to go for a free showdown on most rivers.

To toybux, you are entirely correct in that considering his holding on the turn, we were exactly 50/50 in this hand. With the dead money in the pot and the possibility of making a straight/straight flush, I see no problem continuing, even if it could get very dicey.

SiteX No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

SB ($99.00)
BB ($20.00)
UTG ($22.60)
MP ($139.00)
CO ($106.13)
Hero ($110.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($3.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $1</font>, Hero calls $1, BB folds.

Turn: ($5.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16</font>, MP calls $8.

River: ($37.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, Hero ????


The Villain did NOT ever check-raise. I.e., he check-called an ace high board with JJ and then led $19 into a $10 pot when he hit a very transparent one-card straight on the river.

He also isnt necessarily afraid of one card flushes as he called a river bluff by me on a 3s 4s 8x Ts Js board with Jd 5d.

Any value in betting? It's only the 4th nut flush but against a villain who doesn't check-raise, yet would probably lead with a queen-high flush. I honestly think the only hand that beats me that he checks here is one with the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
He'd also pay me off with a lower one, and most two pair/set combinations.

Given that he slowed down a lot with the heart coming out, and that you say he never check raises, my read on the river is that he was playing something other than a heart draw (maybe a small heart--maybe 66 again) like a pair, two pair, or maybe even a set. I'd value bet the river for about $10-20 depending on your feel for the situation. I think you're probably best here, because I don't see a maniac slowing down with a 1st 2nd or 3rd nut flush on the river after being agressive up to this point.

I'm eager to see how this turned out.

Edit: I forgot to include this in my original post, but why didn't you raise 99 preflop? I'm not sure if any information gained from a PF raise would help with this villian, but I'd be interested in your reasons for simply calling at a 6 handed table.