Fold or Call

Mercman572 · #1 12-19-2005, 01:15 AM

So for my 3 days back home I've played 2500 hands [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. Most I've played well, some I have clearly donked so haven't need to post those either. Here's one I think should be much more cut and dry to me than it is. No read, is this an insta muck? Do I need a read that says he will push draws like this or top pair to call, or can I generalize that enough players will do this with TP to call (I'm thinking it's the former).

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Hero ($95.75)
SB ($99)
BB ($413.55)
UTG ($75.40)
MP ($92.15)
CO ($186.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, UTG calls $6, MP calls $6.

Flop: ($22.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $20, UTG folds, MP calls $85.15 (All-In)

I'm getting 62-127 on the call, so thats about 2:1. I'm flipping with a SF draw. Crushing AQ, and am crushed by a set. I don't know what the numbers are for 2 pair.

PoBoy321 · #2 12-19-2005, 01:22 AM

You're a little better than 3:1 against 2 pair. Reads are really imporant in this spot, though. Against an unknown, I'd probably call and not be too happy about it, against someone who tends to overvalue hands, it's an easy call, against a rock, easy fold.

Mercman572 · #3 12-19-2005, 01:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're a little better than 3:1 against 2 pair. Reads are really imporant in this spot, though. Against an unknown, I'd probably call and not be too happy about it, against someone who tends to overvalue hands, it's an easy call, against a rock, easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha yes reads would be nice and make this hand pretty easy. This is fairly common without them however. Sometimes I see people that have played very reasonably the whole game c/r all in TPTK here against an aggro player and selective memory has me questioning how often this really happens.

DJ Sensei · #4 12-19-2005, 02:10 AM

I begrudgingly call this with no reads. I think that we can generally rule out AA/QQ here with no PFR, TT is a little less likely because of no PFR, 33 is still definitely possible, as is QT. I think you're up against a draw semibluff or even TP here often enough.

Mercman572 · #5 12-19-2005, 12:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I begrudgingly call this with no reads. I think that we can generally rule out AA/QQ here with no PFR, TT is a little less likely because of no PFR, 33 is still definitely possible, as is QT. I think you're up against a draw semibluff or even TP here often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks anybody else?

unlucky513 · #6 12-19-2005, 12:24 PM

why such a big raise PF? is this your standard?

PoBoy321 · #7 12-19-2005, 12:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
why such a big raise PF? is this your standard?

[/ QUOTE ]

Behind a couple of limpers, yes, especially with a hand like KK that doesn't play well multi-way.

4_2_it · #8 12-19-2005, 12:37 PM

Your action screams AA or KK and he's telling you he doesn't care. The only way you are ahead is if he has AQ and puts you on AK.

I have been killed of late in this situation and am starting to realize that throwing my stack in with one pair is probably not a great play without a solid read.

stealyourface · #9 12-19-2005, 12:52 PM

Against an unknown i usually call this.

A very similar hand happened to me the other day and i called and got shown middle pair + a flush draw. (yes somebody called my preflop reraise with 57s).

Mercman572 · #10 12-19-2005, 01:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your action screams AA or KK and he's telling you he doesn't care. The only way you are ahead is if he has AQ and puts you on AK.

I have been killed of late in this situation and am starting to realize that throwing my stack in with one pair is probably not a great play without a solid read.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm coming to a similar conclusion.