Preflop with 88

Aaron W. · #1 12-10-2005, 05:00 AM

I'm multitabling with no HUD. With two limpers plus the two raisers, I figured this would be a 5-6 handed pot. With the two raisers, I figured that postflop may find a bunch of bets thrown into the pot. Therefore, I called. Your thoughts?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, 2 folds, CO 3-bets, Hero calls ...

ajm36 · #2 12-10-2005, 05:08 AM

I don't like it. You really don't know what The EP's will do with 2 bets coming at them, this may get capped, and you are most certainly behind either the raise or the 3-bet OR both. Say it is 5 handed and everyone stays to the river. Are you good with THIS hand under THESE conditions 1 out of 5 times? The decision to fold here should be automatic.

istewart · #3 12-10-2005, 05:24 AM

I wouldn't call here without some good reads. Consider first that you have to make up a helluva lot of bets by calling three cold, secondly that players in this game are quite passive, and thirdly that if you hit a set your relative position is very bad.

Schwartzy61 · #4 12-10-2005, 05:36 AM

I don't see this getting past 4-handed. With a 3-bet out there I would only expect 1 EP limper to call and don't expect the blinds to enter the pot either.

With that said, I fold...

Jake (The Snake) · #5 12-10-2005, 05:51 AM

There's a big difference between 5:1 and 15:3 in the amount of postflop bets you have to make up when you hit your set.

Calling on set value alone here, even if you KNOW you are getting 5 opponents and you know nobody is capping would be wrong. I highly doubt there will be a significant # of times you can win this hand without spiking an 8. I fold.

Aaron W. · #6 12-10-2005, 11:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, 2 folds, CO 3-bets, Hero calls ...

[/ QUOTE ]

This was for set value only. I don't intend to go very far unless I snag my 8.

Miss the set 8 times = 24 SB lost
Hit the set once = 12-13 SB preflop + 5-6 SB on the flop + 4 SB on the turn + 3 SB on the river = 24-26 won = close enough.

Having not played full ring in a few months, I've forgotten a number of estimates that I used to use to determine my postflop implied odds on these sorts of hands. So these numbers which I pulled out of nowhere could be off a little bit.

Fantam · #7 12-10-2005, 12:03 PM

You seem to be being a bit generous when estimating the number of bets, which you could expect to collect if you make your set IMHO.

AlmightyJay · #8 12-10-2005, 12:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm multitabling with no HUD. With two limpers plus the two raisers, I figured this would be a 5-6 handed pot. With the two raisers, I figured that postflop may find a bunch of bets thrown into the pot. Therefore, I called. Your thoughts?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, 2 folds, CO 3-bets, Hero calls ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, I don't like it. You're a much better player than me, but I don't see how you can't play this for set value. I can see calling one raise, but I hate calling three cold here.

MN_Mime · #9 12-10-2005, 12:10 PM

Even snagging the 8, there are a good number of situations where you simply can't make up those bets.

A83 - when you're against non-ace overpairs and/or just overcards
KK8 - paralyzes PFR (maybe most paired boards)
any 4-straight
monotone flops

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It's a tough hand and I hate releasing it, too.

Aaron W. · #10 12-10-2005, 12:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You seem to be being a bit generous when estimating the number of bets, which you could expect to collect if you make your set IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

What your counter-estimate be? (Remember that this is an 'average' guess, so you need to balance the times that you get bonus action and the times you get no action.)