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  #11  
Old 12-09-2005, 12:50 PM
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Default Re: big blind, baby trips, bloated pot (party 5/10)

That sucks - The river is a fold. You're going to pay 4 BB with the basement of a fullhouse?

I suspect UTG did a delayed-raise with his 4-K or 4-A. Possibly 22. I can be 80-90% sure button has a J and is overplaying the turn.

With that turn action and insufficient odds (you know it will be capped), I would argue for folding the turn instead of investing 3 BB there and 4 more on the river. I know it seems weak but the situation looks very costly. If you fold a winner, move on and make a note.
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  #12  
Old 12-09-2005, 02:28 PM
KDawgCometh KDawgCometh is offline
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Default Re: big blind, baby trips, bloated pot (party 5/10)

I'd say go ahead and cap the turn. utg is generally neutral aggression with him playing 40% of his hands. THe button is an out and out LAG, so I would almost disregard him having a hand that beats us here

as far as the river, I really dunno. I think utg has a 4 more then he has a J to be honest. A 40% guy isn't limping with a crap jack all that often, and this guy raises a fair amount of hands, so he'd raise any Jack down to J9s, IMO. So basically the only jacks that he can logically have are J8s, J7s, and J9o.

I think that he is limping with a fair amount of 4s as he would limp there with suited connectors that contain a 4 plus K4s and A4s type hands.

Now the LAG rasising this river presents a conundrum, he plays enough hands to where he may have a crap jack. This pot is really big, and though I have an underfull, I really don't want to completely give credit to the button here and may just go ahead and coldcall. I'm not liking the situation all that much though
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  #13  
Old 12-09-2005, 03:42 PM
Spicymoose Spicymoose is offline
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Default Re: big blind, baby trips, bloated pot (party 5/10)

[ QUOTE ]
That would be tough to lay down, but in this situation given that a Jack is usually played by loose players (or any player with another good card), it might be best to fold. The pot is huge too so in theory, a call may be your best play since you will get a huge payoff if your fours hold up.

Again, I'm new at this kind of stuff so don't rip me up if i'm wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot may be big, but our hand sucks right now. Look at the action, and realize that even though they are agro, at least one of them will often have a jack. We are getting about 10:1 on our call, but it could easily get capped behind us. We are not good even 10% of the time here. At best we split, but even that is a bit far fetched.
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