Can I peel flop here?

DeathDonkey · #1 12-05-2005, 04:14 AM

15/30 full online. I raise UTG+1 with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] folded to preflop LAG postflop passive button who coldcalls. BB now 3 bets - he is tight TAG like 20/4 we both call.

Flop is T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and BB bets.

-DeathDonkey

hobbsmann · #2 12-05-2005, 04:21 AM

maybe I'm missing something, but this looks like a really easy peel.

jason_t · #3 12-05-2005, 04:38 AM

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maybe I'm missing something, but this looks like a really easy peel.

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No, it's much closer than that. Hero has a gutshot and two overs. Our overs could be dominated by the 20/4's three-bet and could have reverse implied odds associated to them. While a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] won't necessarily give someone a flush, it will set up redraws. Although there is no reason to fear a flush draw, it does decrease our equity. We're subject to redraws from 99/TT. Finally another thing to consider is that a turn J setups a redraw for AK and JJ. We're immediately getting 10.5:1 but we aren't closing the action. I think this is a fold but it's close to being close.

PokerBob · #4 12-05-2005, 04:39 AM

nope

Chris Daddy Cool · #5 12-05-2005, 04:54 AM

getting 10.5-1 immediately with a passive behind me i'm peeling.

Jeff W · #6 12-05-2005, 05:01 AM

Joe Tall · #7 12-05-2005, 05:48 AM

For the record, I played this hand as DD sweated me spewing off 25BBs in one of the greatest games ever.

I really think you all should take a better look and think about this hand beyond, "it's 10:1 I call" thoughts.

bernie · #8 12-05-2005, 05:54 AM

I'd fold.

b

Chris Daddy Cool · #9 12-05-2005, 06:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I really think you all should take a better look and think about this hand beyond, "it's 10:1 I call" thoughts.

[/ QUOTE ]

fwiw, it is 10.5 to 1. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

i'm not saying its super easy and jason_t outlined why its close, but i still think its a little closer to a call then a fold. if the guy behind us was aggressive i would think folding is better, but the OP said he was passive.

bernie · #10 12-05-2005, 06:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really think you all should take a better look and think about this hand beyond, "it's 10:1 I call" thoughts.

[/ QUOTE ]

fwiw, it is 10.5 to 1. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

i'm not saying its super easy and jason_t outlined why its close, but i still think its a little closer to a call then a fold. if the guy behind us was aggressive i would think folding is better, but the OP said he was passive.

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Wouldn't raising be better than calling?

b