$109 Party Hand - Trip Jacks vs. another big stack on river

[etizzle]

wow the advice in this thread is really bad.

[mlagoo]

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wow the advice in this thread is really bad.

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luckily youve came and set us all straight

oh wait, no, you didnt offer anything constructive at all [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[etizzle]

basically you have two options IMO, one is to bet and the other is to checkraise all in. You are pretty certain to have the best hand, and it just depends if a worse J will call the c/r, and how often he will bluff with something like QcTx.

The more OP thinks he'll call a c/r with KJ-JT and then more he will bluff with Tc8o or QcTo or some other garbage the more I like a checkraise. I would probably bet about 2k and expect to get called by all J's and some other hands too.

I wanna bump this because we came to no consensus.

[Lloyd]

At the very least I'm glad this wasn't an absolutely straight forward hand.

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At the very least I'm glad this wasn't an absolutely straight forward hand.

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I think what sucks so much about this hand is that it's pretty easy to play against a villain that you've played a lot with, but it's very hard to play against a semi-unknown.

Did you consider checking the turn?

[woodguy]

C'mon people I gots me some lernin to do.

Regards,
Woodguy

Villain's call on the turn is somewhat peculiar, given the club draw and outside straight draw on the board. I think you can rule out a set, as it is perfectly reasonable to think you have have "Ac" and he would probably raise here. Did he make his flush? Probably not, as he would have to worry about "A - Qc" at this point, and would probably raise again to protect his hand on the turn. It's possible that given his reputation as an aggro player and a read that you have top pair, he's counting on you to bet on the river and then go over the top, pretending to have air.
Not entirely unreasonable, especially from someone with a "devil may care" attitude who is not willing to sacrifice value in light of the possibility of another club.

All things considered, I like checking with a reasonable expectation of a bet by Villain, followed by a call. The "J" on the river is significant because it may put into villain's mind that you don't have another Jack, as there are already two on the board. Given the play of this hand, Villain will probably bet the pot, giving you a reasonable call with enough chips left if he was trapping. ON THE OTHER HAND, at this point, any bet that you make will seem suspicious, even a 1,000 bet, and may get him to fold on this board. Let the aggro player do the betting for you here; you'll get value if you win and won't lose a lot if he has you beat.

[schwza]

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Villain has to bet the pot with 77 half as much as he calls half the pot with it, and I assure you, from my results they not only bet big with 77 but almost anything that got to the river in the first place.

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do we agree that no good player is betting 77 there? that's a group that we'd like to value bet, for starters.

i'm skeptical about this claim that you're going to see a bet at all from most players there with 77. i think they usually check (but i'm willing to be convinced). unfortunately there's not a real way to logic through that, so hopefully others will post their impressions.

i think it's pretty unlikely that you see a full pot bet. i'd expect a 1/3-2/3 pot a lot more often.

is there something about this board/betting line that makes you think villains are going to be jumping to fire big river bets with air or with mediocre made hands they should be showing down?

[Lloyd]

I don't know about that. I've often found this to be a leak in my online game but in situations like this I often hear my imaginary commentator saying "the only way he can win this pot is if he bets at it." It's very possible that a big bet by the villain would get even top pair to fold with the Jacks pairing and a possible flush. So yeah, I think a good player may bet 77 here.

Now, I say it's often a leak because it seems like everytime I make such a bet I get called by a hand that *should* have folded. But I think that has a bit to do with the fact that I'm not making a huge bet - just enough to make him think I want to call - figuring that's a stronger play. Again, I might think it's a stronger play but my opponents often don't.

So I think a good player could bet 77 here if he thought his opponent was also a good player.