$109 Party Hand - Trip Jacks vs. another big stack on river

[adanthar]

For starters, here's what he probably doesn't have: a jack. If he called both the flop and the turn with it and managed not to raise on a three flush board, he's...not good. (It's possible he's got something like K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J, but unlikely.)

He might have a set or a flush. He might also have total trash (medium pair, two cards that he is planning to bluff with). Don't even think about a blocking bet; bet/raise/call is a good way to lose your stack - all of the bluffs are going to abandon ship on this card because you're not folding, and all of the big hands will raise big because you're not folding.

It's a lose/lose situation...unless you check. Which I do 100% of the time on this board, and then I call a big bet and beat his 75 offsuit that he would never have bluff raised with now.

PS: If he has a midpair, checking is also faaaar better. Do you see why?

[flawless_victory]

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PS: If he has a midpair, checking is also faaaar better. Do you see why?

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no, i dont. how about you help me out and explain.

[mlagoo]

i'm almost always bet/calling here, and getting pissed off that i don't have position.

[schwza]

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PS: If he has a midpair, checking is also faaaar better. Do you see why?

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this makes no sense.

[woodguy]

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It's a lose/lose situation...unless you check. Which I do 100% of the time on this board, and then I call a big bet and beat his 75 offsuit that he would never have bluff raised with now.

PS: If he has a midpair, checking is also faaaar better. Do you see why?

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So you are totally discounting the number of times a mid pair or badly played overpair calls?

I like your line in that you don't go broke to a bigger hand, and get value from bluffs, but he can hold some hands that call the river.

Another J is unlikely, but also cannot be discounted completely.

Regards,
Woodguy

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It's a lose/lose situation...unless you check. Which I do 100% of the time on this board, and then I call a big bet and beat his 75 offsuit that he would never have bluff raised with now.



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you say you call a big bet. it's river time, he has position, he has the nuts or near nuts, isn't he going to bet big? so you go broke calling him. What's wrong with a value bet? Villain can have near nuts and respect the fact that you may actually have the nuts and you get through rather cheaply. In addition, it is a value bet because if villain has a pocket pair, you are getting villain to put more chips into a pot with a losing hand.

[PFrese]

Bet, call any raise or push any raise. You are getting all of your chips in here and be glad.

Now, you may be up against the flush, but based on what you said about the villian, he would most likely have raised the turn, since he does not have the nut flush.

He could have slow played a set, but I doubt it. I would put him on KJ or QJ with the K or Q of clubs. What do I win?

[adanthar]

You have, say, 77. 'Villain' bets into you on a J329 board with 2/3 clubs, then checks a second jack. The best play with 77 is probably to check behind; what people *actually* do is to bet it looking to get a better hand to fold or A3 to call.

Conversely, when villain bets the jack, 77 isn't calling a large bet and might not call a small one. But he might very well bet the pot if checked to.

When you check, you lose some value vs. normal jacks (but not a lot - they will value bet themselves most of the time, so you average a few hundred chips), 'win' lots vs. flushes/boats and make a killing off the Harrington 10% (which is a bigger factor here than you would think). You lose a bunch off AA-QQ and exactly K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J. I make this tradeoff all the time and will post a few hands when I get home tomorrow if this thread is still around.

[schwza]

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The best play with 77 is probably to check behind; what people *actually* do is to bet it looking to get a better hand to fold or A3 to call.


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what better hand is villain folding out? exactly 88? i recognize you're not saying that it's a smart play - it's what bad villains do - but i think a bet here from 77 is too stupid for us to think that villain does it. it's much less stupid for a villain to call a 1/2 pot river bet with 77, and i think it happens more.

[adanthar]

Villain has to bet the pot with 77 half as much as he calls half the pot with it, and I assure you, from my results they not only bet big with 77 but almost anything that got to the river in the first place.