Proper turn raise?

[Fryguy]

UTG and MP are total fish, SB is slightly laggy (low sample size on SB)

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, MP calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

River: (15 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP folds, Hero folds, SB folds.

Final Pot: 16 BB

While you probably have enough equity for a raise to be slightly +EV on the turn, I think calling is more +EV as we are more likely to be bet into on the river and can raise when we hit our flush

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
While you probably have enough equity for a raise to be slightly +EV on the turn, I think calling is more +EV as we are more likely to be bet into on the river and can raise when we hit our flush

[/ QUOTE ]

And I think, while it may not be likely on this pretty ragged flop, that getting 3-bet would make me throw up in my mouth. And I don't see the raise accomplishing much maybe a free showdown but Q high wins here (never) so I'd call. Yes there is some value with this many but we only have one to come and I don't like pushing BB's when I haven't made a hand yet.

[slipoker]

I'd just call the turn instead of raising. Most of the time especially against laggy/fishy players they will not be folding to your raise, and I doubt queen high is good here on the river if you get a free showdown. Also when you call the turn, you're much more likely to get bet into on the river by the small blind, even if another diamond falls.

[milesdyson]

no, not proper.

one, the only time it's +EV is when no one ends up folding. your raise allows someone to 3-bet, which will definitely fold out some hands. then your raise would not be +EV.

two, you often give up the chance to raise the river when you hit.

in about 100k hands, i can't remember ever raising the turn purely because i had an equity edge.

[eviljeff]

you may have a razor thin equity edge here, but I'm not sure. if this was the flop (minus one of the non [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s), this would definitely be a raise.

I don't raise the turn. I don't think your equity edge is as great as you might believe, as you aren't drawing to the nuts. In this marginal situation, you don't need to push a microscopic edge so hard, especially if you are the best player at the table already.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
In this marginal situation, you don't need to push a microscopic edge so hard, especially if you are the best player at the table already.

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the debate is whether or not this is the most +EV move to begin with. it has nothing to do with it being a microscopic edge to push or not. if one decision is best, then one should make that decision. the best argument for calling here is the one given by others in the thread - you can raise the river when you hit, and you don't open yourself up to getting reraised which will ruin your small equity edge.

Assuming you have a full 11 outs (9 for the flush plus the 2 overcards) you still only have a 24% chance of winning while putting in 25% of the money. If you factor in the fact that some of your outs may make the straight and the fact you aren't drawing to the nuts, it seems that raising on the turn cannot be +EV. Am I missing something?

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming you have a full 11 outs (9 for the flush plus the 2 overcards) you still only have a 24% chance of winning while putting in 25% of the money. If you factor in the fact that some of your outs may make the straight and the fact you aren't drawing to the nuts, it seems that raising on the turn cannot be +EV. Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]
you are right about this. if we assume we have 12 outs and they are all calling, then it's barely +EV. if we assume 11 outs and they are all calling, it's -EV.

i was simply trying to say that the fact that we are maybe the best player at the table should not come into discussion.

but yeah, you're right. being realistic, we really don't even have an equity edge to push here in the first place (i agree with you that we don't have 12 outs on average here).