AQs. NASTY HAND. PARTY 1/2.

[flawless_victory]

ok.
havent been playing this game too much lately.
just sat a few rounds ago and have only showed down solid hands, so i have should have a good and TAG image.

an EMP opens... he plays ok and is prob a small winner in this game... def a selftaught old school type... he coldcalls alot and plays more passive postflop than a 2P2, but he can mix it up and has an decent understanding of holdem it seems.
i threebet on the button w/ A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]... loose and semiaggro fishy guy calls in the SB and the EMP call... so 3way.

flop comes K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
checkcheck to me and i bet.

i check here sometimes and i almost checked this one through, but EMP is v capable of making a quick exit if he doesnt have a big hand and SB could have something like JT here, so i felt like i needed to give myself a chance to win the pot now.
well, sb checkraises and EMP calls 2.
yay. i call also.
i have 2 BDs and an over, but i feel like im drawing dead here... does this call suck?

turn comes 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
checkcheck to me again, i check.
hmmm.

river comes K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB bets, EMP folds, and now im getting 10:1ish to call w/ nut nada. clubs missed, so i go ahead and call.


this cant be right.
i think all postflop streets merit discussion (although 4th may be clear).

I dont like the flop play. Edit: I like the bet.

I think that when it is c'rd and EMP calls two, you need to let AQ go. On the turn, a check is clearly the only play you can make.

On the river, I'd give EMP credit for a missed hand like the nut flush, and I think that the fish in this hand is capable of making this c'r with an OESD. I'd just be glad you got to see the river for free and fold here. I dont like calling down with nut no pair in this spot....but, since it's me, I probably would anyways, just because, and then wish I hadn't.


Fold this flop.

Check this turn.

Fold river.

IMO.


Tex

[elindauer]

It would be very odd for the SB to check a made hand on this board as he has no reason to think anyone will bet for him and the board is full of draws. There's plenty of doubt, so the river call looks good.

The flop... well, you know. Good luck with that.

-Eric

[tongni]

Fold the flop. On the river, PFR realizes that his ace high club draw is no good. You should too.

[Jeffage]

This is just some discussion fodder here but...

Is SB the type who would valuebet something like 55 or a 7 on the river here? I doubt he has a king since he probably checkraises the flop with it. Would he potentially fold a weak two pair hand to a river raise figuring you're raising something like JJ or QQ for value? I'm not saying I would definitely raise here, but I might if I thought my opponent was capable of folding a hand better than mine.

Also curious what you would have done if EMP had bet the river instead of SB. And would anyone have bet the turn here to avoid the river ambiguity? I'd probably check but I'm not 100% sure it's correct THIS hand with THIS board.

Jeff

[DonCaspero]

I don't think a turn bet is that bad. When EMP checks again on the turn after coldcalling two on the flop, it looks very much like some kind of draw. When SB check it could be because he too has a draw, or maybe more likely a weak made hand that was hoping to win it right there or at least get it heads up with you. The EMP coldcall scares him, so he checks. You're paying off a blank river anyway, so might as well charge the potential draws and earn an extra bet if you hit an ace on the river. If you're raised you have an easy fold.

[DeeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
well, sb checkraises and EMP calls 2.


[/ QUOTE ]
That would be enough for me to say 'bye bye' to my AQ on the flop...

Hitting the Q (or Ace) might well not be enough to win. You may also be reverse dominated (with any of the 6 outs) which makes it worse, and flush draws can redraw out against you even if you hit the Queen/Ace on the turn. If the turn is A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] it's possibly worse. Your runner runner outs are not worth much and despite the pot being 15 SB I think you're drawing pretty thin.

[bugstud]

problem is that at 15-1 his backdoor broadway and nut flush alone are almost enough to call, so if the ace is ever clean it's a clear call. imo that means that he must call here when it comes back to him on the flop.

[1800GAMBLER]

There's never been a hand in which i could do this but this seems like one. It seems like EP has Asxs a very large percentage of the time, well, if not all the time. So that hugely discounts SB from having it.

That, in addition to, i think his most likely hand is KQ KJ that got a little scared by the coldcall, and silly tricky sets and TT JJ, so it's a pretty wide range of legit hands but with some discounting.

At first i thought it was very close, not i think it's just a fold.

Everything else i play the same.

[DeeJ]

true, but the ace could be reverse dominated (I think this is not unlikely), you may well need to put in a bet to chase at the turn, you can get your Ace - or straight - and still lose to a flush, and you can get your flush but still lose to a boat if the board pairs the river. I think it's pretty close nonetheless.

The trouble with judgement calls like this is that your EV (if it is positive) is pretty tiny, you lose 90%+ of the time, & the variance is massive. Which means you can pretty easily go 40,50 or more times in these scenarios and lose every one [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Beautiful mythical Sklansky dollars.