Anyone have Exact Chip Counts of the Raymer vs. Kanter hand?

[Salva135]

Any criticism of Raymer's play is results-oriented thinking. If a spade fell on the river and Raymer took a monster chip lead, no one would be attacking his play right now. The push on the turn to Kanter's raise was a power move based on a good read -- there wasn't any reason to put Kanter on a 4 or a set here. The board is dangerous in a low-limit game, but NOT at this stage of the tournament. It looks like Kanter put him on a couple of high cards and made a semi-bluff, but he decided he was going to gamble in the heat of the moment. Judging from how much Raymer lost on that hand, I don't think Kanter was pot committed (although someone could look up the numbers to find out).

What annoys me about Kanter's play here is that it looks like, from the footage we saw, that he called almost immediately, when he HAD to know he was way behind in the hand and putting his entire tournament life on the line with one card to come. He didn't think it through at all, and then couldn't even control his sh*t-eating grin when he sucked out. To call off all of your chips like that was absurdly reckless, and just a terrible play overall.

[Kyle Stark]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ummmmmmm, still no answer to the initial question. Anyone have the episode tivoed that could figure out the chip counts.

[/ QUOTE ]

easiest thing to do would to be go to card player, I'm sure they still have the live updates up.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Actual Hand:

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 20 - Ayhan Alsancak has the button in seat 5, Raymer raises, and Kanter calls. The flop comes 6c-5d-3h, and there's a bet and a call. The turn card is the 7h, Kanter bets $600,000, and the two players are quickly all in. Raymer shows pocket kings (Kd-Kh), and Kanter has Qh-Jh. Kanter has a flush draw, and needs to catch a heart to win the pot. The river card is the 2h, and Kanter makes his flush to double up through Greg Raymer.

Kanter's supporters are ecstatic, and cheering loudly, but the rest of the room is nearly silent as crowd-favorite Greg Raymer loses a huge pot. You can distinctly hear the cheers, but the silence in the rest of the room is almost overpowering. Aaron Kanter now has somewhere between $3.5 and $4 million, while Greg Raymer is crippled down to about $400,000.

[/ QUOTE ]

3 hand later chip count

[ QUOTE ]
Seat 1: Greg Raymer - $415,000
Seat 2: Tim Phan - $1,500,000
Seat 3: Aaron Kanter - $3,780,000
Seat 5: Ayhan Alsancak - $1,100,000
Seat 6: Phil Ivey - $2,815,000
Seat 7: Joseph Hachem - $4,630,000
Seat 8: Andrew Black - $3,385,000
Seat 9: Joe Connor - $1,700,000

[/ QUOTE ]

[ligastar]

I just saw on ESPN. Raymer bets $100K PF, called. Raymer bets $150K on flop, called. Raymer bets $300K on turn, raised to $900K to go, then Raymer moves AI, called.

This comes for ESPN.

Greg H.

[ QUOTE ]
Any criticism of Raymer's play is results-oriented thinking. If a spade fell on the river and Raymer took a monster chip lead, no one would be attacking his play right now. The push on the turn to Kanter's raise was a power move based on a good read -- there wasn't any reason to put Kanter on a 4 or a set here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? It seems like there's a lot of results-oriented thinking coming from both sides here. Raymer's move looks like a genius read only because his opponent was a major donk playing with crap. If he had flipped over pocket sixes for a set here, wouldn't everyone be talking about how badly Raymer overplayed his one-pair?

[slickpoppa]

Here is Raymer's account of the hand:

[ QUOTE ]
We are 8-handed, and blinds are 20K and 40K with a 5K ante. I raised to 100K as the first person into the pot, which was my standard raise for that level. Aaron called behind me pretty quickly, and my read was that he did not have much of a hand. The flop was 357 with one heart. I bet 150K into the 300K pot. Aaron quickly called, and I was very sure he did not have a draw, nor did I think he had a big hand of any sort. My best guess was a medium Ace such as AQ-AT, or a medium overpair such as 77-99. I thought he was either taking off a card to hit his overcards, or waiting for another small card before he made a move with his medium pair.

The turn was the 7h, and it clearly did not make his hand. I saw nothing in him to make me believe that he had just made a straight or a set. I bet 300K. Aaron quickly started counting out chips for the call and for the raise. It took him about 15-25 seconds to get the chips arranged. While he was doing this, I was almost 100% certain of my read that he had close to nothing, and was bluffing. I waited for him to say raise and to push forward the chips to legally seal the size of his raise, and then I immediately said "All-in" before he had even finished moving his chips. He got a completely disgusted look on his face, and said something like "I have to call." His raise was either 500K or 600K, and my last raise to put him in was about 800K or 900K more.

Aaron was getting about 4:1 on the last call, and had to make it, but he did not ask for a count before doing so. So, either he didn't care to check out whether or not he was getting the correct pot odds, or he had already done that math in his head when he made his raise. I found his quick interview with Rich on Cardplayer.com to be very interesting. He said he called the flop with the intention of making a play on the turn, which is the ONLY reasonable basis for making that flop call. However, he never said anything about doing this because he had a read on me. He said he thought that the board was scary and looked like a good board to bluff at. It made me wonder if he's really new to live poker, and is playing this event as if it were online. That is, is he ignoring tells, or not even looking for them, and just playing the cards alone? I can't say, because I saw so little of his play that day, and did not play with him on any previous days.

I was glad to get 1.7M into the pot on the turn as a 9:2 favorite, and glad to see that my read of him, even being a player I had almost no experience with, was so dead on. I only regret that the river was a heart. ;-)


[/ QUOTE ]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1

[ohkanada]

If the guy had a set, or the straight, then people would be saying Gregs read was wrong. But it wasn't. His read was correct.

Ken

[swarm]

[ QUOTE ]
I just saw on ESPN. Raymer bets $100K PF, called. Raymer bets $150K on flop, called. Raymer bets $300K on turn, raised to $900K to go, then Raymer moves AI, called.

This comes for ESPN.

Greg H.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you, for the guy telling me to read cardplayer did you notice that I included the cardplayer report in the original post? Doesn't inlcude very in depth action now does it.

PREFLOP:

Ok so that means preflop Greg had around 2.3 mil and Kanter had close to 1.9 mil. Not sure what the blinds were but I would guess after Raymer's Raise and Kanter's call there was around 230k in the pot going to the flop.

FLOP: 6,5,3 with one heart

Raymer leads for 150k on the flop, about a 2/3 pot bet, not bad in this situation. Kanter calls, which I will never understand. This means that he put in 250k, 13% of his stack, with no pair on the flop with QJ and a backdoor flush draw against a very good/aggressive player that is hard to move off hands. I can not think of any plan he had at this point going to the turn.

TURN: 7h

POT is 525k Raymer Again makes a 3/5th pot bet inducing Kanter to come over the top since Greg must feel Kanter is in with a Pocket Pair 88-JJ to call the flop. This can be debated, with one pair Greg maybe should have looked to lock this down on the turn with the draws out there. Pot is now 830k to Kanter.

Kanter Reraises a little over the pot to 900k, 600 more to Greg. Pot is 1725, and Greg pushes in making it 700k or so more to Kanter. Kanter needs to call 750k to win the 3.1 million in the pot getting 4-1 on his call. Odds of hitting his flush draw with one card to come is about 5-1 so he didn't quite have pot odds but it was close and maybe he didn't want to play on crippled w/ only 750k.

RIVER: 2H

Kanter scoops a HUGE 3.8 mill pot

[A_C_Slater]

The odds of him hitting a flush with one card to come is not 5 to 1. It's almost 4 to 1(High 3.) If he thinks Raymer doesn't have a heart then it's almost 3 to 1 (Low 3.)

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
The odds of him hitting a flush with one card to come is not 5 to 1. It's almost 4 to 1(High 3.) If he thinks Raymer doesn't have a heart then it's almost 3 to 1 (Low 3.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Where did you come up with your numbers. I just ran it and if Raymer doesn't have a heart he's 4.18 to 1

[swarm]

[ QUOTE ]
The odds of him hitting a flush with one card to come is not 5 to 1. It's almost 4 to 1(High 3.) If he thinks Raymer doesn't have a heart then it's almost 3 to 1 (Low 3.)

[/ QUOTE ]

9 outs, 46 cards in the deck, he doesn't know Raymer's cards. 1/5 cards are a heart, not that hard.