check-call counterfit 99 ?

[Trix]

Online 10/20.

I openraise 99 in the CO 5 or 6-handed, very laggy guy with 46/23/3/45wsd/40won stats, over 500 hands or so 3bets on the button, he thinks I´m laggy aswell as I´ve been opening alot. He overplayed a recent hand in a big pot against me.
I´ve been folding early after getting 3bet on blind steals a couple of times at the table though.
I cap it.

Flop JT2, I bet and he calls.
Turn T, full rainbow, I bet and he calls.
River J, I check, intending to call.

[Derek123]

interesting hand. I think lower pocket pairs are a big portion of his range here since he never raised postflop. Given that he is likely to bluff raise the river if he too was counterfeited, I think I like it.

[Schizo]

I have no idea as to how to set the hand ranges but I tried this:

2,112 games 0.005 secs 422,400 games/sec

Board: Tc Td Jh Js 2h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 82.8125 % [ 00.82 00.00 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q8s, JTs-J9s, T9s-T8s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, AKo-A2o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, Q8o, JTo }
Hand 2: 17.1875 % [ 00.17 00.00 ] { 99 }

If someone wants to tell me how to adjust the hand ranges I will rerun the stove.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea as to how to set the hand ranges but I tried this:

2,112 games 0.005 secs 422,400 games/sec

Board: Tc Td Jh Js 2h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 82.8125 % [ 00.82 00.00 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q8s, JTs-J9s, T9s-T8s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, AKo-A2o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, Q8o, JTo }
Hand 2: 17.1875 % [ 00.17 00.00 ] { 99 }

If someone wants to tell me how to adjust the hand ranges I will rerun the stove.

[/ QUOTE ]hi. this means nothing. sry.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
this means nothing. sry.

[/ QUOTE ]

it means c/calling is bad.

[ArturiusX]

Check-calling is terrible here.

[Trix]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this means nothing. sry.

[/ QUOTE ]

it means c/calling is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

How did you come to that conclusion ?

[Trix]

hi. it means that he atleast got the right idea. sry.

[Trix]

Well, alot of the hand you have included are pretty easy to rule out.

For instance, do you think that he will flatcall AA twice ?, JJ? etc. Will he call the flop with 5s4s ? and so on, but in the end you will end up with a good a range as you can and that is what you should use to figure out whether you are ahead often enough to call when you compare with the potodds.

[Trix]

I dont think he QQ-AA or Jx, Tx as I think he will play them harder on the flop or turn. I dont think he has KQ either for the same reason, but he might, same goes for 98.
AK/AQ he may or may not raise on the flop or turn.
I think he might call down Ax from the flop, but he may also fold it.
88 and lower, he will probably just call on the flop and turn pretty often, but may raise sometimes.

When I check the river I think there is a good chance that he isn´t just checking and giving up if he holds a pair for a crap kicker to the board 2-pair.
If he holds K9 or such, he will probably just check through and he may check A-high through aswell, but will probably bet it some of the time.
So in the end I think pairs 88 and down will be a good part of his range.

I´m getting 7.5:1, which means that I have to be ahead a around 12% or more to make this a call.