KTs at 10/20 stars - Page 3

Adam22 · #21 10-15-2005, 06:10 AM

hands like this are what stresses me out so bad about shorthanded ( especially when i get called down by KJ )

what happened anyway.

Trix · #22 10-15-2005, 07:54 AM

Well they are in the pokerhand link, but for those who didn´t look:
CO shoved his last 3 bets in with 97(I didn´t bother looking before now either)
UTG had K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], which is probably one of the worst one pair hands I can be against except better top-pair with a flushdraw.
BB said that he folded KJ to the cap and I think it was true.

Now to put a little more thought into this rather than just copying what was in the pokerhand link, I´ll try to figure out how bad these implied odds actually were in this case.

I´ll ignore the all in guy for this.

From the flop to showdown I could probably expect around 9:4BB odds, which is around 31%.

Qs Kh 800 80.81 156 15.76 34 3.43 0.825
Kd Td 156 15.76 800 80.81 34 3.43 0.175

If you add 9h7d, it drops to 16%.

Since my equity is around half of that, that would mean that my reverse implied odds are around one BB ?

Preflop I ended up getting 5.6:1.. (4.25:0.75), which means that I need around 18% equity, ignoring postflop play.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Kh 334993 30.85 721635 66.45 29380 2.71 0.317
Kd Td 238553 21.97 818075 75.33 29380 2.71 0.228
7d 9h 277317 25.54 803805 74.01 4886 0.45 0.256
Js Kc 205765 18.95 850863 78.35 29380 2.71 0.198
(I´m aware that I´ve forgotten one coldcaller hand)

Noticed that I had a number wrong at first, so it seems alot closer than I thought.

With 22.8% equity, on a hand that needs 18%
So I dont really gain that much preflop..

I´m guessing that there are alot of better ways the hand can play out vs the ranges I´m against, but not really sure if my implied/reverse implied odds are negative or positive here. If they are neutral, it´s a close call I guess.

I´m guessing that my big implied odds on 2-pair or better, or big draws, due to my relative position will make up for alot of the money I lose when I´m dominated on the flop.