8/16 live hand vs 2+2er

[DeathDonkey]

6 handed due to walkers. Live 8/16 good game. I met 2+2er Exist earlier in the night at a home game where he mentioned he has overcome some weak tightness in the 10/20 6m, I then noted that I have been trying to overcome LAGginess in the same game. That should be apparent in this hand...

Exist raises UTG two folds and I 3 bet with T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] bad loose but not completely awful BB calls cold, Exist caps and we both call.

Flop is J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Exist bets, I raise, BB coldcalls, Exist 3 bets, we both call.

Turn is Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Exist bets we both call.

River is 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Exist bets, I strongly feel BB will call or overcall but not call two bets. I see a ginormous pot and a slightly scary river card and I raise...

-DeathDonkey

[imported_azalin]

Why raise? You are almost certainly behind and i dont think anyone is folding here..

[brazilio]

I completely dislike an overcall because I feel we've got third best hand the vast majority of the time, but I don't see how Exist is really going to fold an overpair here. I just fold this without much hesitation. AK[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or AQ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] are the two hands he could perhaps reasonably put you on if you're looking to get him to fold, and he's 2 in 5 to hold one of those hearts, making the odds of him folding even unlikelier. If he's on KK he can possibly put you on AQ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and still have his K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], so that's not completely accurate.

[DMBFan23]

he caps OOP, bet-3bets the flop, bets the turn and river, what do you put him on? do you think he will lay down KK/AA here?

EDIT: better stated, assume a hand range and how often does he have to fold KK/AA for this to be good?

[Perseus]

A play like this would be great if you thought Exist would be bluffing, but that is not likely the case in this scenerio.

Fold and move on to the next hand...

[paco]

I'm with the majority here I think. Unless he specifically has AKh or AQh, the action (remember there's a 3rd person too) says you've been behind the whole time. I would try and find a turn fold.

[brazilio]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm with the majority here I think. Unless he specifically has AKh or AQh, the action (remember there's a 3rd person too) says you've been behind the whole time. I would try and find a turn fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your gutshot is worth the turn call.

[scotty34]

What range of hands is he capping with OOP preflop? Which is he bet-3betting on the flop? Which of those does he continue to fire on the turn and river with two players left? All of this while keeping in mind he is somewhat weak-tight.

I would wager you are ahead of roughly 0% of these, and he is going to fold roughly 0% of these for one more bet on the river in a big pot against a semi-LAG.

[exist]

one correction on the action: preflop, the BB thought and thought and then capped it himself.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
one correction on the action: preflop, the BB thought and thought and then capped it himself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm.. I would say this is a pretty major correction and changes the hand completely