FF: I'm on the clock and need help with my 1st pick (7th overall)

[The Armchair]

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Seriously, this is a great example of why I really hate having picks 4-9 this year. No clear cut decisions.

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LT, Alexander, Holmes, McGahee, Edge, with Peyton somewhere in there. That's top six.

Seven is really tough. In a ten team league, I'd be tempted to go with Moss, first because I think the RB pool is deep enough where I can get a starting caliber one at 27th overall, and second because I know that I'm a good enough middle and late round drafter to make up for the problems not having taken an RB causes. But I can't imagine taking anything but a RB otherwise.

Who you take here is not really all that important, as I said in another post above. However, you should keep an eye out for who is going to be around at your next pick. Many leagues tend to have echo picks -- the guy(s) taken in succession are the same type of player as the guy before. Lewis will be followed by McAllister, Ahman Green, and Clinton Portis. Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, and Domanick Davis will probably be lumped together, potentially with Rudi Johnson as well. Tiki Barber, Curtis Martin, and Corey Dillon will probably go close to in succession.

One of the tricks when near the wrap-around but not on it is to take a guy with a natural echo, because you can predict who will go next. Also, guys who lack any natural echoes are likely to fall further than you'd expect otherwise -- keep an eye on that.

[CarlSpackler]

I agree with your take on Moss, as I was seriously considering taking him here. Normally I wouldn't take a wr at the 7th pick, but the #1 wr is still on the board and while he's risky here being a wr, the potential reward is probably greater than any other player at this juncture. And with the deep rb pool, you're assured of getting a good one on the way back. My predraft strategy was(is) running back theory, so that's why I stuck with the rb.

Deuce, K. Jones, J. Jones, and Portis were the 4 picks after my selection. This seems to support echo theroy and the popularity of the rb theory. I'm still planning on taking a rb with my next pick even if Chad Johnson or Marvin Harrison are still on the board.

[Jack of Arcades]

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Of those, I'd take Deuce.

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I don't think you could really go wrong with Domanick, one of the Joneses, Rudi, Clinton, or Tiki here.

[nolanfan34]

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Seriously, this is a great example of why I really hate having picks 4-9 this year. No clear cut decisions.

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LT, Alexander, Holmes, McGahee, Edge, with Peyton somewhere in there. That's top six.

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I agree with the rest of your picks, but I'm not touching Holmes this year, no way. I know injuries can't be predicted, but guys who missed time the previous year due to injury, I have a hard time drafting that early.

[wayabvpar]

Agreed. Holmes has a lot of wear and tear on his tires as well- he is due for a pretty severe dropoff ala Emmitt Smith and Marshall Faulk. RBs get old in a hurry, especially once the injuries start piling up.

[SossMan]

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Seriously, this is a great example of why I really hate having picks 4-9 this year. No clear cut decisions.

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LT, Alexander, Holmes, McGahee, Edge, with Peyton somewhere in there. That's top six.

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I agree with the rest of your picks, but I'm not touching Holmes this year, no way. I know injuries can't be predicted, but guys who missed time the previous year due to injury, I have a hard time drafting that early.

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i think he's fine, so long as you make sure you get L. Johnson. That offense is going to score w/ it's running game. period.