4th Nut? Massive Overbet? Why the hell not!

[kagame]

So I've recently tried to shake things up in the $1000NL on Party. I have been getting called by the most ridiculous hands, its really incredible. Anyway, Villain seems to be a chronic slowplayer, and I'm praying he has a set and can call me. I'm beating a large number of flushes that also would call. How high is my risk factor here of running into a higher flush would you say? Is this a great overbet, silly for reasons of not getting value, or just plain moronic? Ready set go!

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (8 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($761.4)</font>
UTG ($594)
UTG+1 ($970.92)
MP1 ($565.05)
MP2 ($641.85)
CO ($876.15)
<font color="#C00000">Button ($740.05)</font>
SB ($717.35)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $18</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls $18, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $12.

Flop: ($57) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $45</font>, Button calls $45, Hero calls $45.

Turn: ($192) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $75</font>, Hero calls $75, UTG+1 folds.

River: ($342) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $623.4 (All-In)</font>

Final Pot: $1567.45

[Spladle Master]

I would just like to point out that I was the first one to vote "Nice overbet."

[kagame]

lol thanks

hope i get SOME analysis feedback on this

wasnt sure what including the poll would do...

[stu-unger]

im not voting because i dont see the option i want. I'd say super duper balsy with a good win %. I dont think id make this over bet just because someone could just as easily have aces with a flush draw on the flop as the set your hoping he has. It looks like he was weak on the turn. What were the results of the hand, 4th nut no good?

[TheWorstPlayer]

*Deleted

[kagame]

aww damnit

[kagame]

i WOULD say i know for certain he doesnt have the A high flush draw as he doesnt reraise the flop...

but ive seen him slowplaying sets so i dont know if hed cold call with that also [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[stu-unger]

this is a reply to u in general not just for this hand. I think when you revue hand like the one with the 9999 u look at your opponents play based on what you would do. Like raise pre-flop or on the flop with AQ. U pigeon hole yourself by doing this sometimes, im not trying to be a dick u just have to realize people do things in different situations usually on a wimb , just cause they feel like it.

[creedofhubris]

Why did you even call preflop?

In a sane game, no one is calling your bet with a hand that you beat. I'm not really aware of how the Party 1000 game plays, but in any other game the river allin is a foolish move.

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you even call preflop?

In a sane game, no one is calling your bet with a hand that you beat. I'm not really aware of how the Party 1000 game plays, but in any other game the river allin is a foolish move.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is the 600 game.


i vote for meh.

small flushes might call, so might a suspicious, bad player's flush.

but you are losing value on making some other hands fold.

i like it slightly more than not, but its.... okay.