Nit of the Day: Drawing Dead and Raising the River

[DavidC]

Boz...

If I haven't already come to the river answer, yet, I think I'm pretty close. There could be a mistake or two in that formula. However, it's only half the answer here. We need to figure out our EV on the river in order to determine when we should be calling the turn.

Three possibilities exist:
-don't improve
-improve and win
-improve and lose

Each has their own 'V', which creates an EV for us in this situation. I'm not entirely sure, though, how to use those numbers to determine what our pot odds have to be on the turn in order to justify a call.

Specifically, if you expect to lose money more money on the river than you win on the river, then you need juicier pot odds to make your turn call.

THAT's the formula that I'm looking for.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Specifically, if you expect to lose money more money on the river than you win on the river, then you need juicier pot odds to make your turn call.

THAT's the formula that I'm looking for.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm still playing catch-up, here, but I'm not sure I like this idea. Your pot odds on the turn are your pot odds on the turn; if you're convinced you're already drawing dead (you're HU with a TAG pfr/capper and the board is A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and you're holding T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], for instance...dunno how you'd get there, of course), then your pot odds are meaningless. If you're not already convinced that you're dead on the turn, then you shouldn't be worrying about making up bets on the river, right?

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
if you're convinced you're already drawing dead... ...then your pot odds are meaningless. If you're not already convinced that you're dead on the turn, then you shouldn't be worrying about making up bets on the river, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, please take a look at the "example ad absurdem" in the OP, as well as the formula that I made for raising the river (this was discussed but the formula was never published, afaik, in TOP). One more thing: C approaches, but never touches, 100%, with every further bet that goes into the pot.

The fact that we're having this discussion after I've written what I've written is proof that my "nit of the day" is valid, so it's nice to get some evidence of that, I guess, but I think everything that I've already written is clear, if approached with an open mind.

I'm still puzzled by two things, though:

1) How to measure the EV of checking vs betting when out of position, heads-up, on the river.

2) How to use reverse-implied odds to determine what our current pot odds should be, if we're to profitably call.

Just as a side-note, if you KNEW that you were going to raise the river and lose 98% of 3 bets, rather than call the river and lose 98% of one bet, it's still possible that you should call on the turn, knowing that you're going to get raped on the river, because it still might be worth it, depending on the answer to #2 above and the current size of the pot. This is similar to it being rational for you or I to play poker, and expect to profit, even if we fold all of our pat royal flushes.

--Dave.

does this mean your calling the guy that made the original comment a nit? you should provide a link for mocking etc.

your post is totally correct, of course...

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
does this mean your calling the guy that made the original comment a nit? you should provide a link for mocking etc.

your post is totally correct, of course...

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I won't do that... (Not only will I not do that, but I'm pretty sure he's going to be correct quite often.)

He DID have nearly 1k or slightly more than 1k posts, though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

It'd probably be healthier if I chose just to ignore these things, but I've been thinking about this formula for like more than a year and haven't ever gotten around to writing it down before now, so that's one good thing that's come out of this.

Come on guys, no one's going to attempt to write the formula for betting the river out of position vs checking instead? (I haven't tried this one yet.)

--Dave.