#11
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Re: Can I peel flop here?
[ QUOTE ]
Wouldn't raising be better than calling? [/ QUOTE ] I'm not really interested in paying 3 bets to see the turn. and what does raising do? |
#12
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Re: Can I peel flop here?
I don't think you can fold for 1 bet. the King might be good enough for you if you're up against AQ or JJ or QQ in BB, but he might also have AA/KK/TT/99 which really messes up your day. I like KQo myself but UTG+1 is a bit early to open with, as a 3-anywhere behind will leave you wondering where you are on a Qxx Kxx flop (ie losing to AQ/AK/QQ/KK but not beating much). If you get your offsuit Jack I think you have sufficient implied odds to make enough BB on the river. But it is close.
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#13
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Re: Can I peel flop here?
I call. You've got to have 4 outs, although a 3rd spade will set up redraws for others, you also have implied odds because I don't see BB folding unless 4 spades get there and he doesn't have any.
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#14
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Re: Can I peel flop here?
I think this is a fold too. Factoring in the range of hands that could be beating a K/Q should it come, so only 3 reliable outs - and the flush redraws etc I'd guesstimate working odds at something like 15/1. Easy fold for me. I don't like the raise for a free card on that board, either.
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#15
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Results...
[ QUOTE ]
No, it's much closer than that. Hero has a gutshot and two overs. Our overs could be dominated by the 20/4's three-bet and could have reverse implied odds associated to them. While a won't necessarily give someone a flush, it will set up redraws. Although there is no reason to fear a flush draw, it does decrease our equity. We're subject to redraws from 99/TT. Finally another thing to consider is that a turn J setups a redraw for AK and JJ. We're immediately getting 10.5:1 but we aren't closing the action. I think this is a fold but it's close to being close. [/ QUOTE ] Jason hit the nail on the head and this is a fold and is exaclty what I did; great job Jason. With such a low PFR (4%) from the BB, my overcards are out the window. The cold caller wasn't a total moran, he stats were something like 40/25/0.9 therefore he likely had a hand that falls in or around this flop. Both players I had nearly 5k hands on. This hand went to a showdown, the button raised the flop and the BB called. Turn was J-offsuit it was checked through and the river w/Q, BB bet w/AK and button called w/AT. |
#16
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Re: Results...
Your play might be good but your memory is terrible. I don't even have it in front of me, but BB 3 bet the flop with AKo! He then bet the Jack turn and the river Q and sucked out on button's ATs. Button threw a mini hissy fit.
-DeathDonkey |
#17
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Re: Results...
[ QUOTE ]
Your play might be good but your memory is terrible. I don't even have it in front of me, but BB 3 bet the flop with AKo! He then bet the Jack turn and the river Q and sucked out on button's ATs. Button threw a mini hissy fit. -DeathDonkey [/ QUOTE ] That's very unlike me to not recall action as my memory is the opposite. I must have been too busy responding to your IM telling you why I folded. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] |
#18
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Re: Can I peel flop here?
I fold if BB is aggressive (you say TAGlike 20/4 and I see that as weird, given the low PFR/VPIP ratio), but if there's a reasonable chance of him and Button combined allowing one to peel off on the turn, then I'd call. But it's a bit of a parlay, so it really depends on how aggressive/passive both Button and BB are here.
Rob |
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