Anyone have Exact Chip Counts of the Raymer vs. Kanter hand?

[grandgnu]

IndyJoe, so what you're saying is that you wouldn't risk your entire stack that late in the tourney as an 80% favorite to win with one card left for your opponent to draw out on you?

With that line of reasoning (and correct me if I'm wrong), you would also fold A/A to 7/7 pre-flop because your opponent now has FIVE cards to draw out on you, and starts as a 80/20 dog, right?

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IndyJoe, so what you're saying is that you wouldn't risk your entire stack that late in the tourney as an 80% favorite to win with one card left for your opponent to draw out on you?

With that line of reasoning (and correct me if I'm wrong), you would also fold A/A to 7/7 pre-flop because your opponent now has FIVE cards to draw out on you, and starts as a 80/20 dog, right?

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I already covered this. There's a huge difference between the two. Greg made his play, and it was the perfect play. Like I said, I was wrong.

[grandgnu]

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IndyJoe, so what you're saying is that you wouldn't risk your entire stack that late in the tourney as an 80% favorite to win with one card left for your opponent to draw out on you?

With that line of reasoning (and correct me if I'm wrong), you would also fold A/A to 7/7 pre-flop because your opponent now has FIVE cards to draw out on you, and starts as a 80/20 dog, right?

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I already covered this. There's a huge difference between the two. Greg made his play, and it was the perfect play. Like I said, I was wrong.

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Hmmm........I mistook your "wrongness" for sarcasm.

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Let me point this out for the 5th time, so you can comprehend that your wrong. Hachem played his big pairs differently. He had AA and KK several times, and didn't let it get past the flop. He flopped trip jacks against Ivey, and move in immediately after Ivey made a pot sized raise. He could've called several times on several occasions, and built the pot. He didn't. He won. Did he not win? Did Greg not get draw out, and lose? Can YOU understand this?

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And you're saying here that not letting it go to the flop with AA is a mistake? You're truly playing scared of going to a flop with the best starting hand in the game?

The name of the game here is poker, and accumulating chips is the object. You're not looking to win pots, the most hands or anything else - your goal is to win as many chips as you can. When I look down at AA preflop I'm hoping for a heads up confrontation or, at worst, maybe 2 players going to the flop with me and hoping at least one of them drops out on the flop. I want their chips. My AA is strong and, barring some miracle flop for the other players, I have a very good shot of taking some of them. Pushing preflop with big pairs in every situation is not the right move. You're not looking to shutout the competition in all of these situations. I even saw this last night pushing AA from the SB as a reraise because it was over 50% of my stack. Looking back I should have smooth called and jammed the flop hoping the preflop raiser hit something instead of just pushing and making him fold. I would have put myself in a position that I could have won more chips and I'll win at showdown about 85% of the time, on average. I'm willing to take those chances to make the big money instead of just a small return on my time and money.

In the hand from this post Raymer was a HUGE favorite to win and just got unlucky. You fail to see this aspect. Focusing only on the loss of the hand is results oriented. Raymer made the right play and, given the opportunity to play the hand over, should still be happy to go in better than a 4:1 favorite. To win a tournament you MUST be willing to put your chips in with this type of advantage. I don't think any respected poster on this forum would disagree, this is a spot where you root for a call from the draws and hope that luck is on your side. If you hit here you're sitting pretty and that much closer to the big score.

[Brad F.]

The bottom line here Indy is that you think that Greg had to hope his KK held up as a 72% favorite but you are berating him for letting Kanter 'draw' when he was an 80% favorite. That's it.

He got busted, but you are being extremely results oriented.

Here's a question. If you are Steve Dannenman, and you hold a set of nines and you are a 75% chance of winning the hand, do you want Hachem to call with his flush draw or not?

Brad

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Here's a question. If you are Steve Dannenman, and you hold a set of nines and you are a 75% chance of winning the hand, do you want Hachem to call with his flush draw or not?

Brad

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I know in this case I'm rooting for a call and a race as at least a 5:3 favorite. I know I'm ahead of the draws out there and if a diamond hits the turn I have redraws on the river for the full house.