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  #1  
Old 08-07-2005, 01:15 PM
AKQJ10 AKQJ10 is offline
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Posts: 184
Default Bubble trouble

No one from the STT forum gave me any advice on a hand I posted as an example of questions I have about bubble play, so I'll try here:



Please comment on my play on all streets:

General context: Pacific $4+$0.50 20-seat sit-and-go (pays $40/24/16). I've been hitting some insane cards and i'm the chip leader six-handed.

Table image: I think by now opponents see me as a somewhat aggressive player who's shown a few monster hands, but who also is going to try to steal at times.

Hand #1

Stacks are (starting to my left):
T2834
T2362
T740
t2751
T2717
T4596 (me)

I'm in the big blind with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ; blinds are T75/150


UTG calls; 1 fold; CO calls; button and SB fold; I check.

Flop (T525):

5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet 400. UTG calls.

Turn (T1325):

2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Checked through.

River (T1325):

A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check; Opp. bets T450; I fold.



My analysis: betting on the flop with overcards may have been a bit dumb, since by now I think everyone expects me to steal. But in the BB the flop may have hit me, so it was worth a shot -- probably too big a bet. I think check-folding the river is fine given the chances he's a call-with-any-ace type (no specific read). I lost some chips here, but mostly just missed the board entirely and got my semibluff with overcards called. If I'd turned a king or even an eight, I'd go for the kill.

Agree / disagree?



My plan is to post other hands from the same tournament, but obviously if there's some reason why these aren't interesting enough to get a reply then I need to find a new strategy.

TIA.
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  #2  
Old 08-07-2005, 01:37 PM
Uglyowl Uglyowl is offline
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Posts: 66
Default Re: Bubble trouble

The steal was so-so. The board is too coordinated though (2 diamonds) and 5-6 giving some a straight opportunity. Not a horrible mistake though.

What would have been a horrible mistake is going for the kill if a K or an 8 came, especially a king considering you had a bad kicker.
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  #3  
Old 08-07-2005, 01:54 PM
AKQJ10 AKQJ10 is offline
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Posts: 184
Default Re: Bubble trouble

Thanks. I wasn't so sure about the "going for the kill" part after I wrote it, but I figured that at some point you have to take a risk. However, your point is well taken, so it follows that the "value" portion of my overcards semibluff wasn't worth much, and I probably should just check-fold unless getting great odds.

Incidentally, I may be picking up bad habits in the Pacific $4 S&Gs, such as overplaying top pair-mediocre kicker, just because so many people play such bad hands there. So the advice about avoiding kicker trouble is doubly important as I move up.

I looked back over some of the GSIH S&G/tournament material yesterday and think I'm playing too many hands when I get near the money with a comfortable chip position (say, top three).

I'll give others a chance to comment and then post another hand.
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  #4  
Old 08-07-2005, 02:59 PM
Student Student is offline
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Default Re: Bubble trouble

It was a good hand to see a flop on, with expectancy at +29% against a random hand (6-handed). But the flop reduced this hand significantly. Treating your K8s simply as K8, because all advantages of suit-ability were gone once the flop was displayed, reduces expectancy to +4% against a random board. But, of course, the flop isn't a random board at all, and is essentially hostile to your hand. Prospects for winning at showdown are quite remote. Of course you could get trip 8s or trip Ks, and the probability of either is very low. Gee, with exactly 2 of the right cards you could have a straight ("Whew, is that all the prospects I have?").

The other side of the coin dwells on what your opponent has. Opponent might have trips already, especially given that the board pairs on the flop. Your opponent probably has
2 pairs already, and might have a 4-flush after the flop, or a straight draw. If he has draw prospects only, and fails to hit it, of course your K high wins, providing he doesn't have you beat on that score too!

If you chose to bluff, the time to do it is when the flops shows, and then simply go all-in. That's a strong flop for the right hand, unfortunately not yours!

The above remarks are different than what most will make, simply because I've spent a week not playing poker, because I was working on hand strengths and opening hand tables, preparatory to playing 6-handed NL HE. I don't claim to be widely read concerning poker, but a preoccupation with hand strengths of hole cards isn't a very common thing in what I've read. Mostly folks select an opening hand table from a book, and then they discover it very useful for their play.

Creation of opening hand tables for 6-handed is the focus of what I'd done this past week, and Saturday I played 207 hands at several tables. My experiences doing that will be put into a separate post, but I ended up winning after a roller coaster bankroll move!

Dave

PS: Although you've presented all info needed to explore your hand, it requires many deductions on the part of the reader concerning what happened. Personally, I used Bison hand converter recently, and found it less than useless. In particular, the hand I wanted to present here had 3 players all-in (including me), and Bison got it wrong by putting the smallest all-in stack into the side pot against the Villain, and Villain won that money. However, I think Bison would have gotten your hand correctly, and it would have been easier for the reader to understand what actually happened. So that's my idea for why you're not getting much help on your hand...
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  #5  
Old 08-07-2005, 04:54 PM
AKQJ10 AKQJ10 is offline
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Posts: 184
Default Re: Bubble trouble

Thanks for the info. FWIW my assumption with the flop bet was that the flop also missed my opponents, since a 6 is unlikely in a hand once the action gets fairly tight. The very remote chance of kings or eights full wasn't really my hope there; I was assuming that a K or 8 would win for me, although Owl is quite right to point out that my 8 kicker is highly problematic.

I would love to have "bisonable" HHs, but Pacific doesn't support that. Soon I may buy a little program called HandGrabber that will help by capturing more conventional histories. Until then, I've gotta go the DIY route, even if it does keep me from getting responses. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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  #6  
Old 08-07-2005, 07:38 PM
Student Student is offline
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Posts: 273
Default Re: Bubble trouble

Ahhhhh, I can appreciate that! Living in my little world of PokerStars I fail to understand that many other poker sites aren't ammeniable to certain software.

I guess you're stuck with attempting to go a bit overboard in stating the facts concerning a hand, in the hope that more contributions will result.

Dave
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  #7  
Old 08-07-2005, 07:41 PM
AKQJ10 AKQJ10 is offline
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Posts: 184
Default Re: Bubble trouble

I've actually thought of making a point to play "diagnostic" sit-and-gos on Party just so I can post on the STT forum and be understood.

Pacific: Gotta love the fishy players, gotta love the 20-seat sit-and-gos where you can finish top 7 half the time, but the software is just miserable. Can't have it all, I guess.
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  #8  
Old 08-07-2005, 08:23 PM
Student Student is offline
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Posts: 273
Default Re: Bubble trouble

Since I started with PokerStars in March, it's been limited to an attempt to be educated about poker, starting from scratch, and PS was satisfactory for my purposes. I'd had some success beginning 7/16 with my "Metamorphosis," and had entertained moving up to 5/10 cents if and when I'd get my bankroll back up to the $50 I went to PS with. I decided against moving up, because I had to admit the 1/2 cents tables might have some more educative value remaining in them, and it sure didn't cost much to play there! And the last thing I'd entertain was going to other casinos, mostly because then I'd have to add capital to my process.

But I've heard you recommend Pacific as being a place where fish are swimming all over the place, as you've made that recommendation repeatedly. Those SNGs at Pacific, 20 players and all, sounds especially appetizing but my journey entails going up the limits at PS, so it's too early for me! But thanks for pointing the SNGs out.

Have you entertained the possibility that 1/2 cents NL HE might be viewed as 100% fish, punctuated by just a few sharks? So a fellow is having trouble with his $5/10 NL HE game at PS, and he decides to get his confidence back playing 1/2 cents! That's the way it acts. That's my model for PS 1/2 cents games. That would explain why very accomplished players (sharks) will appear briefly, and then move on. If my model is correct, everything's flip/flopped with 1/2 cents, compared to higher stakes. Weak players are present at all higher levels, but you have to train yourself to discover them, to track them subsequently, to get as much money from them as possible etc. At 1/2 cents EVERYONE is weak, but importantly the imported sharks are especially strong out of all proportion to the financial appeals of the game (1/2 cents is nothin', right?).

PS has 2 to 3 times as many 6-hand tables as 9-hand, for NL HE and 1/2 cents. Yesterday I played 6-hand seriously, for the first time. I ran across the same phoenomenon as I'd witnessed at 9-hand: the sharks! Now if I'm right about motivation they have, they're there to nail the fish as skillfully as they can; they want that dividend of confidence, and the bucks mean nothing at all to them.

This is a nuance about 1/2 cents poker I've been attempting to discover. Further, if I'm right, than 1/2 cents NL HE is about the best possible proving ground for the beginner, because he's getting competition that he has no right or expect and isn't paying for, and if he continues to struggle, his ultimate victory will be even superior. Another might throw himself into a 50/100 cents game, just so he could lose a few $thousand, hoping that would get his attention! So he loses out in more ways than one...

6-hand is different than 9-hand, and that's good for my development process. If I take my present $54 to $70 by playing 6-hand, that will be satisfactory proof to myself that I'm ready for 5/10 cents NL HE. In 6-hand one is in the blinds 50% more (33.3% vs 22.2%). It's hard to figure out where Middle position is, at all, with 6-hand. It's possible to consider Early, Late and Blinds, assigning 2 seats to each of these. Blind Position is stronger than Middle Position was in 9-hand, yet weaker than Late. So, there are many differences, enough so that it will keep me thinking. Thus my adjustment to new situations will happen at the 1/2 cents level, the cheap seats!

When I beat 1/2 cents 6-hand, taking capital up to $70.00, I'll actually have 700 BBs for 5/10 cents.

Since I've documented this stuff concerning 6-hand in this post, I'll excuse myself from writing a separate post to describe yesterday's roller coaster experience with the 6-hand tables!

Dave

PS: Perhaps this would have been better in a separate post, as it's entirely possible it will get lost in your thread. Suits me fine! I learn from explaining my ideas, I'm not writing a book, and I get to say Thank You to the 2+2 Beginner's Forum without a lot of fanfare, doing it this way. Many of my ideas are hidden away, because of my attitudes about publication. It's not about glory, ego etc.
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  #9  
Old 08-08-2005, 02:50 PM
Cooker Cooker is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 159
Default Re: Bubble trouble

Why not raise preflop? K8s isn't a great hand, but when I am the big stack, I like to keep the pressure on. I especially want people to know not to even limp marginal hands against my blinds. Of course this depends on reads of the limpers (which you didn't give and shame on you if you don't know whether or not the limpers might be trapping by this point). If the limpers appeared to have been avoiding me, I would be more inclined to check. 2 people limp in (if I am reading the action right, Mr. 740 in chips limps so he is either terrible or really terrible), so I figure they probably don't love their hands. A good portion of the time I would make it 600 to go and see what happens preflop. I try to consistently let smaller stacks know that they are going to have to risk some chips to play with me.
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