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#11
07-27-2005, 01:00 PM
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Re: What do you do with 55 here?
[ QUOTE ]
Right. So calling another $50 hero would need to win $400 to breakeven. There is already $175 in the pot so hero needs to win another $225 to breakeven. Hero also has to consider whether having $645 all the time is better than having $595 7/8 of the time and whatever he will win on average(lets say $1100) 1/8 times. I don't know what is correct but I would call here most of the time. [/ QUOTE ] your math assumes that hero never ever ever ever wins a pot without flopping a set. that is a bad mistake to make. and yes, the most important thing to consider is the relative difference those 50 chips are going to make on your EV in the tournament. say calling here wins you the pot only when you hit the set. so the case where you win with getting no more chips you're giving up like, half the equity of your call since you're getting 225 when yo uwin instead of the 400ish you needed to get. but those chips down there are marginal, so there's effects to consider between the 595 stack and having the 800ish chip stack, and then more when you consider that when flopping a set you'll often make more chips, including often making more than just the 200 more you need to break even. citanul ps: i think i personally lean towards call here as the right answer but i can't think more about it right now. the utility of those 50 chips is just miniscule, esp considering you're about to be done paying your blinds for the orbit, compared to the huge boost a double up would give you in ev. 
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#12
07-27-2005, 01:36 PM
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Re: What do you do with 55 here?
[ QUOTE ]
your math assumes that hero never ever ever ever wins a pot without flopping a set. that is a bad mistake to make. [/ QUOTE ] Very true. I guess it would depend on the opponent then. If he is passive and predictible and will check if he misses then I would definately call this. If he is aggressive and tricky then I may fold or may just call for set value. Of course multitabling makes it difficult to devote time to reading players so i tried to make things easy. Being OOP makes it even more difficult to play. If you check it makes it more likely he will continuation bet with nada. If you bet and he hits he will raise you.
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#15
07-27-2005, 06:15 PM
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Re: What do you do with 55 here?
ouch.
What about a push?? I kinda like pushing.
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#16
07-27-2005, 06:46 PM
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Re: What do you do with 55 here?
Assuming villian is solid, seems like there are three possibilities (all math approximate):
1. He has overpair -- you are 5-1 dog 2. He has two over -- you are about 55-45 ahead 3. He's on bluff/has one over -- you are 5-2 ahead What's a fair breakdown of each of these scenarios? I'd probably assign 50% to #1, 40% to #2, and 10% to #3 -- fairly conservative assumptions, but since you're out of position and he raised with players behind him, I'd tend to think conservative. You could go 50/30/20, or 40/40/10 --depends on villian's past play. So now a little (approximate) math: Scenario one: you win 16% of time, 50% prob. = 8% win Scenario two: you win 55% of time, 40% prob: = 22% win Scenario three: you win 70% of time, 10% = 7% win So you stand to win about 37% of the time. Pot is offering you 3-1 odds, so this looks like a very reasonable call to me, esp. when you consider the implied possibilities of making your set. What about a raise? [This is my first post on here, so I guess people are calling a raise a push, unless push means "all-in"?] Not sure I see any reason why. Solid player has indicated strength, hero has a low pair and has chips to play with. I'd call and if the flop came rags, take a stab at winning it. IF you get called or raised, I'd slow way down and evaluate my options (read: pot odds).
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