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  #1  
Old 05-22-2005, 11:58 PM
ononimo ononimo is offline
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Default \"Save pots, not bets\" vs. paying off too much - 2 hands

I'm having trouble reconciling Ed Miller's "Save pots, not bets" advice with knowing when to fold when you feel you're beat. I feel like I've been paying off with 2nd best hand too much and have been making a conscious effort to pay off fewer winners but I'm worried about developing a weak-tight game.

Most importantly, how would you play the river on both hands? Feel free to comment on other aspects of the hand as well.

I had no reads on the villains on either hands other than they were loose (VP$IP > 30).

Hand #1:
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (7.16 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Hero folds, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 11.16 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
MP2 has 3h 3c (one pair, threes).
MP3 has Th 6h (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: MP3 wins 11.16 BB. </font>

I checked the river because of the flush scare card and didn't want to bet into two callers. I feel like I played the hand properly and made the correct fold despite the results. Any comments?

Hand #2 occurred shortly after Hand #1 but at a different table. Again, no specific reads except for loose PF calling standards:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP1 posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 folds, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (14.16 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 17.16 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Kd Js (one pair, jacks).
MP1 has 9h Ah (flush, ace high).
CO has Jd Qh (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: MP1 wins 17.16 BB. </font>

After the raise on the turn, I knew I was against at least an Ace-high flush draw if not a flopped flush, a straight or even two pair - in other words, I was in bad shape. Should I have dumped my TPGK on the turn, folded on the river, or was the pot already big enough that I had to call the river bet?

EDIT: my PT WTSD% is 34% and my Won$SD% is 47.5% ... how much value do people put into these stats?
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  #2  
Old 05-23-2005, 12:10 AM
dealer_toe dealer_toe is offline
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Default Re: \"Save pots, not bets\" vs. paying off too much - 2 hands

lead the river on hand 1, if its 2 back to you, a fold there is ok. The fold isn't bad, but a lead on the river would have been better.

Hand 2, flush draw isn't going to come alive after calling a bet and a raise on the flop. You're looking at 2 pair, and at first glance I thought flush. Either way its pretty cut and dry you're behind pretty bad, and a fold on the turn would have been good.
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  #3  
Old 05-23-2005, 12:18 AM
damaniac damaniac is offline
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Default Re: \"Save pots, not bets\" vs. paying off too much - 2 hands

Hand 1: when it's two cold back to you you can't help but fold, but I like betting this river, they'll call often enough with worse hands, they don't have to have a flush draw, and they're a lot less likely to do what they did (although I don't expect to see that very often in any case).

Hand 2:
Fold preflop. OOP, marginal hand, doesn't play well multiway, you could well be up against a wide variety of hands from the raiser/poster/callers, but I don't know that you can turn a profit, at least not when you do what you did postflop.

Probably should look to check-raise this flop, rather than bet it. As is, considering how vulnerable your hand is and the number of draws that are out there, it might be worthwhile to wait for the turn, depending on where the bet comes from.

I really feel like you should find a fold somewhere on the turn. You have no real redraws, and the raise by MP1 into a large field shows a lot of strength on a three-flush, straighty board. Given how vulnerable your hand is, I'm not sure I even like the first call on the turn. Maybe raise the CO to face the field with two cold if you think you might still be good, there are too many draws to let people draw out on you the odd times your hand is good. Folding is sometimes underrated. I like it here.
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  #4  
Old 05-23-2005, 12:27 AM
New001 New001 is offline
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Default Re: \"Save pots, not bets\" vs. paying off too much - 2 hands

As for those numbers you gave, I think they're some of the more important stats PT can give you (in combination with the others), especially if you're having trouble figuring out where you are in a hand. You're going to showdown about as much I do, but you're not winning as many hands. I would guess that you aren't pushing hard enough before the river, or you're not protecting your hands properly.

It would be hard to tell without seeing more hands or getting more numbers.

Hand #1: Bet the river, call one bet back, probably fold two bets back. This is Party, they're calling you with any piece of the board and any pocket pair. Or worse. Getting raised would suck, but you definitely need to value bet these spots.

Hand #2: Fold the river for sure. I'm not sure how I would have played the previous streets.
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  #5  
Old 05-23-2005, 12:38 AM
cmwck cmwck is offline
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Default Re: \"Save pots, not bets\" vs. paying off too much - 2 hands

Hand one looks good until the river. That's not a scare card ; bet the river.

In hand 2, I would have either bet the turn, or check-raised the turn. EDIT: with 3 opponents, I think check-raising is better. You maybe could even check-call the flop, then check-raise the turn. A check-raise on the turn will be a lot more effective than on the flop, in terms of protecting your hand. It's also nice when people think you've been slowplaying the flush and fold a better hand (if someone folds a small heart on the turn, that's good for you too. If a heart falls on the river, and you get heads up with CO or MP1, you can bet and fold to a raise).
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  #6  
Old 05-23-2005, 02:43 AM
ThomasPHoolery ThomasPHoolery is offline
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Default Re: \"Save pots, not bets\" vs. paying off too much - 2 hands

Hand 1: You have to lead this river. If the flush or straight is out there, and it's raised and re-raised behind you, you can safely fold at that point, but you're allowing yourself to potentially get bluffed off the hand by checking here.

Hand 2: Check raise the flop, lead the turn w/ plan of folding to turn raise. Check raise gives some protection value, and you get more info. As it stands, you put yourself in a very diffucult situation trying to read what the flop raise means. if you take the line of leading the flop and calling the raise (which I don't like) I think you have to lead to turn back when a heart doesn't fall, and fold to a raise here, because you're drawing very thin. In terms of calling the turn raise and the river bet, you shoud dump to the raise on the turn, or at the very least on the river. had the river gotten to heads up, I think a river call is possible, but there is almost no way your hand is good vs. once you've been raised on the flop by the CO and check raised on the turn by MP2. One of them has to have you beat, and I think this is a good spot to save a bet.
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  #7  
Old 05-23-2005, 02:58 AM
bobbyi bobbyi is offline
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Default Re: \"Save pots, not bets\" vs. paying off too much - 2 hands

I might not bet the flop on the first hand and definitely would not on the second.
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