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  #11  
Old 12-24-2005, 04:51 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: and in this corner.....weighing 265 pounds..Folding Equity!!!!!

Here were my thoughts on the hand. I am slightly advantaged as I have a ton of experience with the SB, and some with the total donk. I thought for sure the SB had an Ace, he was very close to be committed here. The donk would call down anything with an Ace, probably folding anything else.

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Well, I want all of the chips in on the flop, and the more callers the merrier. You have 15 outs to close enough to the nuts for me. Being heads up doesnt help our chances of winning the hand any (since I'm sure whoever would call any bets will have the A). Im definitely going to raise though, I want to reopen the action and at least give the SB a chance to push. But I dont want to raise too much, b/c I want the option of reraising his push, if anyone else is along for the ride.


So, 220 in the pot...hmmm

I think I make it 300, to go. Its early enough that they wont have any read on your bet sizes. This way, it leaves the SB with just enough chips where he might think he has some Folding Equity. Plus, SB calling 200 is better than the 100 call (MP or LP)you can probably expect behind you. Also, you made it 300, It cost SB 200 to call, leaving him with 350, which will reopen the betting if he pushes it in (in case someone else calls you too). Also, it commits you to the pot, and makes it easy to call a push from SB if he calls and Leads the turn for 350 (and we miss)

Say you make it 300, and have 2 callers. I am Jamming any turn other than an A.
If just SB calls, I will take the free card if he gives it, and call a push.

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So, my thought was that we had to raise. If we just call, and dont get another caller, we are making a mistake by calling the push that I was certain the SB was making the 2/3 of the time we miss. The players behind would have a hard time raising with less than 2P, and they could get us off the turn with a push as well.

I think that a lone ace would call a raise alot more often than they would raise themselves. I though the 300 gave us the best chance of building a monster pot on the flop. A call would end up with a 300-400 pot way too often.

I felt that we could ignore hands like AXs, 2p and sets, b/c the betting of the other players would take care of getting all of the money in for us. So I want to maximize against weak flush draws, AX, etc.

I am going to try to get the other player to post his actual line and thoughts. Just an excuse to trap another good player into posting some hands.

Happy Holidays ,you degenerates! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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  #12  
Old 12-27-2005, 12:33 AM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: and in this corner.....weighing 265 pounds..Folding Equity!!!!!

shameless bump.

I want to see what you guys think of my line suggestion.
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  #13  
Old 12-28-2005, 03:33 AM
M.B.E. M.B.E. is offline
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Default Re: and in this corner.....weighing 265 pounds..Folding Equity!!!!!

A_Plus, I think you're right that raising the flop is in order. It's a little counterintuitive because our goal on a flop like this is to get all-in multiway -- that's much better than getting all-in headsup (which is why most in this thread wanted to call the SB's bet). I'd prefer raising to 275, not 300, but not a huge difference there.

If we just call the 100, there's a good chance the other two will call as well, then on any non-club turn SB will push his 520 into the 520 pot. That is generally a disaster for us with the straight flush draw.

You didn't give the payout schedule. It doesn't really matter to this particular decision, I suppose.
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  #14  
Old 12-28-2005, 03:51 AM
schwza schwza is offline
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Default Re: and in this corner.....weighing 265 pounds..Folding Equity!!!!!

[ QUOTE ]
If we just call the 100, there's a good chance the other two will call as well, then on any non-club turn SB will push his 520 into the 520 pot. That is generally a disaster for us with the straight flush draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

is it really a disaster? consider two cases:

a) push the flop and get heads up against the SB's Ax.

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Jc 9c Ad
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.5354 % 53.54% 00.00% { QcTc }
Hand 2: 46.4646 % 46.46% 00.00% { As7c }

[/ QUOTE ]

pot is 120 + 620 + 620 = 1360, hero has equity 728 and he paid 620, so the +EV of pushing (vs. folding) is +108.

b) call flop and fold turn

lose 100 relative to folding flop. so you lose 208 chips when you have to fold the turn vs if you push and get HU vs SB. not exactly a disaster, since getting heads up vs SB is a pretty good result, but not some sort of amazing score. op's read is that villain almost certainly has an A and probably isn't going anywhere, so there isn't much fold equity to be had.

one third of the time you hit, and then you're getting the whole SB stack as well as a lot of chips from the donks. plus a call here lets others call or raise, both of which you're happy to see.

if you raise, you might fold out a small flush draw, which is obviously really bad (and the nut flush draw is not going anywhere, and the K-high draw probably isn't either).

i think you've got to call here.
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  #15  
Old 12-28-2005, 05:35 AM
M.B.E. M.B.E. is offline
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Default Re: and in this corner.....weighing 265 pounds..Folding Equity!!!!!

[ QUOTE ]
one third of the time you hit, and then you're getting the whole SB stack as well as a lot of chips from the donks

[/ QUOTE ]
Sure, if you hit the straight. But if nobody raises on the flop, and then a club comes on the turn, I wouldn't be too certain of getting all the SB's chips if all he has is TPWK.
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  #16  
Old 12-28-2005, 12:24 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: and in this corner.....weighing 265 pounds..Folding Equity!!!!!

Here is a little more color on the players in the hand, and the payouts.

SB - pretty good, thinking player. If he sees the turn with an Ace, he is pushing. There is a chance he will fold to a reraise here with AX, (X<T)

2 guys behind. Both bad, neither really looks beyond their own cards, but both on the passive side. It will take a real hand for these guys to raise AQ+, 2P, sets. Im not sure they would know how strong TP + nut flush draw was in this spot.
I think any Ace calls our raise, but mid-PPs, a lot of jacks, and hands like K9, call the 100 only.

There was 18 players, payout was something like 50%, 25%, 15%, 10%. So very top heavy.
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  #17  
Old 12-28-2005, 12:52 PM
schwza schwza is offline
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Default Re: and in this corner.....weighing 265 pounds..Folding Equity!!!!!

the fact that the later guys will call a raise with Ax and that SB may fold a bad Ax makes raising more appealing. you have a chance to steal the pot outright, and you're less likely to lose the idiots, who are really the people i want to play against.

also, mbe is right that if you flat call a club hits the SB might get away.
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  #18  
Old 12-28-2005, 01:33 PM
Tilt Tilt is offline
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Default Re: and in this corner.....weighing 265 pounds..Folding Equity!!!!!

I concur with many others that a call is in order. Even a small raise introduces the possibility that the SB might push over your raise, so they will be reluctant to call. I want their money in on the flop.

If the flop is just called around to a blank, the SB will probably push. I would just call then, also. You will probably get a caller then, too, and a cheap river card with a huge pot to play for. There is no point in doing a shutout raise for the dry sidepot.
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  #19  
Old 12-28-2005, 01:53 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: and in this corner.....weighing 265 pounds..Folding Equity!!!!!

The flop isnt getting called around as often as you seem to think. There is an Ace on the board, it is far from a given that a player without an Ace will call off 10% of his stack, being almost certain someone else has one.

One averagge, we can assume generously that we get one caller, when we just call.

so, pot will be 400 on the turn. SB has 550 behind.
If SB pushes, you can't make this call hoping for a call from the player behind you. The river card isnt exactly cheap when they are putting in either 1/2 or 1/3 of their remaining stack to call, and know they are up against at least one real hand after our overcall.

If we just call, we have to agree to give up on the turn, if he pushes.
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  #20  
Old 12-28-2005, 01:58 PM
Art Vandelay Art Vandelay is offline
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Default Re: and in this corner.....weighing 265 pounds..Folding Equity!!!!!

At first I thought a call was in order but after reading your thought process, I like the raise to ~300. With the weak players behind you it's entirely possible they will call 300 cold. Even if they fold you can call a push from the SB as you are the favorite on the flop with your monster draw.

Another thought I had about this line is that let's say you just flat call and the donks fold. Now if a brick hits and the SB pushes 520 into a 320 pot you don't have the odds to call. However, if you have raised to 300 on the flop and the SB called, the SB is now pushing a 320 stack into a 720 pot and you have the odds to call. Maybe I'm looking at this the wrong way but it seems by raising on the flop you are setting it up so that even in a worst case scenario (the weak players both fold and a blank hits on the turn) you still have the odds to call a SB turn push.

Yes, I am a level 2 on MLG's evolution but damn it I'd like to get to at least a 3.

Edit: fixed some numbers in my pot calculations.
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