NHL thought / bet for tonight

[gomberg]

I've never made a bet on an NHL game even though I am (unfortunately for me in Chicago) an avid fan.

There was a blowup at the BlackHawk's practice yesterday by the captain after a tough, tough skate about not trying hard enough in games especially on defense mentally. He laid into the team for a while.

Will the team respond by playing a better game tonight? I'm thinking of betting on the Hawks against Nashville at +101 or so. I also think the over 5.5 might be a good bet as well although it's -120 or so.

Good move, bad move? I'm new to handicapping this type of stuff - thoughts?

[dankhank]

it feels good when you make this kind of analysis and the bet wins, but i think psychology-based moves like this are just coinflips. ie it can be one factor in a strong play, but not sufficent as the only one.

[YoureToast]

I'm a big fan of psychology based bets because there's typically an edge thats not reflected in the line. The problem with this particular bet is two-fold, however. First, if this is widely known information, any effect on the blowup should theoretically be reflected in the line. Second, blowups like this can go both ways -- it could prove to hurt the team more than it helps. You, as a fan, would know better about the what effect it should have. If you feel that it will more than likely have a positive impact and you also think this has not been reflected in the line, there probably is value there.

[Yads]

It's at +105 now, I'm not sure that it will be a big enough factor. The game looks to be a coin flip anyway, doesn't look like there's much money to be made. Most of the games tonight don't look that great although Islanders/Devils might be worth a shot at the under.

[gomberg]

Thanks for the replies all. I think I'm going to make a small bet just to "test" my theory out. It's known, but only in local chicago papers on the 5th page of the sports section (blackhawks are maybe the 5th most popular sports team in chicago).

[TheRake]

The over might not be a bad play on this game. It looks like Nashville will be starting Mason in net. Only problem is you never know what you are going to get with Khabibulin. He will give up 5 goals one night then turn around and only give up one the next night. Still with the o/u at 5 1/2 it should be no problem. If Khabibulin has one of his bad nights Nashville could score 6 on their own.

Don't want to hijack your thread, but we might as well keep all the NHL stuff in one thread.

I am looking at LA tonight. Anyone have any thoughts on this one? They have been playing well lately and at +131 vs Calgary there looks to be a nice overlay. I have the game as basically a coin flip. Thoughts?

TheRake

Yeah, personally I don't see the Kings beating the Flames. The Flames will be upset over the loss to the Oil and will be ready for this one. At home with Kipper in goal...I'd take the Flames.

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the replies all. I think I'm going to make a small bet just to "test" my theory out. It's known, but only in local chicago papers on the 5th page of the sports section (blackhawks are maybe the 5th most popular sports team in chicago).

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not being a jerk, but I am curious how this is really a way to "test" your theory? With teams this evenly matched (according to the line) the outcome is very close to 50/50. So, even if CHI wins, that doesn't mean you were right and even if they lose, it doesn't mean you were wrong. A sample size of 1 is rarely adequate to know if your theory was correct. Now, if you place this same type of wager over 100-300 games, then you might have a better idea.

craig

[TheRake]

No doubt they are a great defensive team, but I just don't see how they can keep pace with their lack of offense. Especially in this new NHL. Eventually they are going to have to start scoring.

There is no way in hell I would lay -141 on Calgary tonight. It's way to much chalk for 2 teams that are pretty evenly matched. It is either LA or nothing.

[ QUOTE ]
No doubt they are a great defensive team, but I just don't see how they can keep pace with their lack of offense. Especially in this new NHL. Eventually they are going to have to start scoring.

There is no way in hell I would lay -141 on Calgary tonight. It's way to much chalk for 2 teams that are pretty evenly matched. It is either LA or nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

That I agree with. That's why I'm choosing NO PLAY for this one.