Casino Bonus Summary (or: $565 in free money)

[Benholio]

AA vs KK for $200 is definately more risky than clearing a $200 CON (we're talking about CON right?) bonus at blackjack. Less $EV too...

[sexdrugsmoney]

[ QUOTE ]
AA vs KK for $200 is definately more risky than clearing a $200 CON (we're talking about CON right?) bonus at blackjack. Less $EV too...

[/ QUOTE ]

If by CON you mean Casino-On-Net, no.
If you mean "online casino", yes. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Specifically it was about Casino365 which (unfortunately) isn't no risk like the Cryptos as it treats all wagered money as yours first, so you can't play, lose and withdraw your original deposit. (you ain't losing bonus money when you're playing etc)

I decided when I started Casino Whoring I would *never* use my own money on something so risky, that's why I'm trying to do the math using the AA vs KK example.

Cheers,
SDM

[sfwusc]

Casino whoring variance is higher than Poker.

Hourly rate is also higher.

If you do $10 bets at BJ, then the casino on the net bonus is over $100 an hour.

You would have to be four tabling a nice limit to be making that.

-SFWUSC

[jman220]

Two Questions:
1. Smaller bets = smaller variance?
2. Ignoring hourly rate and just looking at gross profits, bet size doesn't matter over time, right? Or am I missing something.

[ttw22]

[ QUOTE ]
Two Questions:
1. Smaller bets = smaller variance?
2. Ignoring hourly rate and just looking at gross profits, bet size doesn't matter over time, right? Or am I missing something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and yes.

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Two Questions:
1. Smaller bets = smaller variance?
2. Ignoring hourly rate and just looking at gross profits, bet size doesn't matter over time, right? Or am I missing something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

2) Not necessarily. I know I have more casino bonuses to do then there is time in a month, so larger bet sizes are mandatory for me. They do increase my gross profits. However, for most people, you are right.

[BluEsiNsOuL]

Can someone post or PM me a good guide of casino whoring? Thanks in advance.

[SoCalRugger]

[ QUOTE ]
Can someone post or PM me a good guide of casino whoring? Thanks in advance.

[/ QUOTE ]
http://www.bonusbug.com/cgi-bin/yabb...i?board=casino

[parttimepro]

To answer the AA vs. KK question:
If you go all in with AA and get called by KK, you will win $200 81% of the time, and lose $200 18.5% of the time. EV = 200 * .81 - 200 * .185 = 125.

At Bet365, it's a little more complicated. Algebraicly, we can determine that the average EV is the bonus minus (wager requirements times house advantage). EV = 200 - (4000 * .005) = 180. There's a wide distribution of possible outcomes. You could lose your whole $200 or you could win $1000. Based on the earlier calculations, 15% of the time, you will lose money, and 15% of the time, you will win more than $380 (i.e. cash out $580 or more).

Bigger bets mean more variance, but they don't change the EV. In other words, if you bet $20 a hand, you'll have a much higher chance of losing money, but also a much higher chance of a huge score. The average is unchanged. Experienced whores make large bets to save time, because they know they'll do enough bonuses that the variance will average out eventually.

After you've exhausted the available cashable bonuses, you'll eventually go to the stickies, which are a whole other topic. Suffice to say that the higher your risk tolerance, the higher the EV for these bonuses.

[jman220]

Is there an easy way to keep track of how many hands you've played, how much you've wagered? Any programs?

Thanks