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Old 12-21-2005, 12:18 PM
Huhmare Huhmare is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Finland
Posts: 137
Default Re: Love it or Hate it?

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The guy had no odds to draw and I made profit. Let's say I had bet the pot on the flop and everybody had folded. No profit there.

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actually if you bet the flop and win the pot is a nice handy $56 profit which is far greater than the -$85 you ended up pocketing without seeing a showdown.

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First, the profit was $42 on the flop. Second, since when did getting outdrawn mean that I actually lost? Ok, I lost this time, but what about the other times when I win? They don't count, because I lost this particular hand? The profit would have been $127, if he had not hit his river. I assume he did hit it, because the bet was inviting me to call. He would not have done that kind of a bet with AQ or something.

Lets do some math.. We shall expect that he had A with a smaller kicker. Lets say 7 or 8. In that case he had 14% chance of beating me by the river. So I was approximately 6:1 favorite to win the pot.. Now let's think about playing the hand 7 times you way and my way. You bet pot on the flop and make a profit of 7x$42 = $294. I make 6x$127-1x$99 = $663. Now tell me which is better? And what about all those hands I am already losing after the flop? I won't lose as much, because I bet sufficiently, but not like crazy. That is an ideal flop to slowplay a set.

Finally I noticed that this is wrong forum for this, so just forget about it.
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