Acceptable Swings?

[CJHunt]

Okay we all have swings but what is considered to be an acceptable level of "swingyness"?

I find myself going on nightly 60 BB swings playing .5/1. I usually start out bad and drop 50-80 BB and near the end of my night come back.

Are daily swings this large out of the ordinary?

I am winning overall but it does seem that almost nightly I go on huge swings and start to question myself. Any ideas?

[Hoss1193]

I guess that depends...how many nights in a row are we talking here? Nightly during last week? Month? Half-year? Full or 6-max? Limit or NLHE, and at what levels (although since you're referring to BB, I assume you're talking limit hold 'em)? How long is your average session (perhaps more useful defined by number of hands vice time period)? Are you multitabling (if so, how many tables)?

If you go on this kind of swing routinely in a single 3-4 hour session on only 1 or 2 tables of a full ring game, and it's been happening for months, then yeah, I'd say that's pretty whacked. If, on the other hand, you're 4-tabling 6-max, averaging 6+ hours a session, and you're swinging that much only over the last week or two, maybe not such a big deal.

In any case, many others with MUCH more experience than me can comment more intelligently...just trying to point out that you should probably include a bit more data to allow an informed reply.

[CJHunt]

Good call! Sorry for the lack of details. Not thinking.

This is over about 3 weeks playing 750-1000 hand sessions of LHE.

I play 4 tables usually 2 full ring LHE and 2 short handed LHE. If their aren't any good games (I play Stars at night)I usually end up playing 1/2 LO8.

Typically I will lose huge. Quit for an hour or so and then play the heads up .02/.04 game to unwind and then start actually playing again where I make my losses back. I wouldn't be worried about it but it seems VERY regular with my losing early and winning later. Maybe it's a rest/awareness issue?

I have a simular problem.
I sit down and wait for a premium hand.
Get AA, hit a set on the flop and get drawned out to a straight or flush. Down 10 BB boom!

Few more hands like that and I'm down to neg 50BB

Then I spend the rest of the session trying to break even. It sucks and it happens atleast 5 days a week.

I know part of the problem is my own ability, but it seems every nice hand I get, gets beaten by something else. I'm real tired of having the second best hand!

Sorry, this turned out to be a bad beat rant, wasn't my intention [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I think its more that the swings down are more memorable than the swings up.

You lose big and it can get to you for a few days. You win big and you feel good - for that day, only.

Having the discpline to not let it affect you is the key to it. Not trying to say that's easy.

[CJHunt]

I accept and acknowledge the fact that I will have swings both negative and positive. My only concern is that I hear people talk about their "extreme" 100 BB swings and I am having almost daily 60 BB swings.

[4_2_it]

If you are experiencing daily downswings of 60BB then you have some leaks. Could be your staring range or could be poor post-flop play. Post some hands in the appropriate and get some specific advice. Do you use Pokertracker? Look at which hands are most profitable and least profitable. See if there are any patterns.

Then there could be any number of reasons for it

I would guess your style of play is very aggressive?
eg. Betting & Raising a lot when drawing?

Not that that's always a bad thing, but I think aggression can be taken too far. And especially at tables where they will call anyway, you can end up building up the pots for other people.

[uuDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay we all have swings but what is considered to be an acceptable level of "swingyness"?


[/ QUOTE ]
You can calculate your variance and compare it to that experienced by other players. Pokertracker will do this for you (you can find your standard deviation listed under Session Notes tab -> More Detail). Around 15 BB/100 is typical. For a solid winning player (~2 BB/100), being down 80 BB in a session shouldn't happen often but it WILL happen.

[Stu Pidasso]

Its normal to start out your sessions swinging down. You start out posting a blind. Then most of the pots you become involved in will show small losses(for instance you see the flop with AQo and fold when it comes monotone-not your-tone 456).

Your wins are few and far between. However when you do win the pots are often big enough to make up for your lossses and then some.

Because pots where you lose money occur with so much more frequency than pots where you win money its more likely you will start out a session losing money and then come back as the session goes on.

[ QUOTE ]
I find myself going on nightly 60 BB swings playing .5/1. I usually start out bad and drop 50-80 BB and near the end of my night come back.

Are daily swings this large out of the ordinary?


[/ QUOTE ]

A 50bb swing is quite ordinary. Expect it, get used to it. Learn to appreciate it.

Stu