bubble push with k-10 200 sng

[bank]

#Game No : 2431492872
***** Hand History for Game 2431492872 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:14297780 Level:8 Blinds(200/400) - Wednesday, July 27, 02:33:13 EDT 2005
Table Table 12343 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 5: AKauf ( $2705 )
Seat 10: JDoggFunk ( $4710 )
Seat 4: fulltit_com ( $1995 )
Seat 7: Riggins_44 ( $590 )
Trny:14297780 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to fulltit_com [ Kc Ts ]
fulltit_com is all-In [1995]
AKauf is all-In [2705]
Riggins_44 folds.
JDoggFunk folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2c, 5h, 8d ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jh ]
** Dealing River ** [ 3c ]
fulltit_com shows [ Kc, Ts ] high card king.
AKauf shows [ Qh, Qs ] a pair of queens.
AKauf wins 710 chips from side pot #1 with a pair of queens.
AKauf wins 4590 chips from the main pot with a pair of queens.
fulltit_com finished in fourth place.

[The Yugoslavian]

You should be *much* tighter/passive here UTG than you are. An argument could be made for *only* pushing very, very premium hands. I think this is a horrible push that only gets worse depending on your opponents.

At the very, very least I'd want AJ or something to push here. I think something like TT+,AQ+ is really more like it (and even then I'd consider limping or minraising).

One thing you can possibly do is limp or minraise and commit your chips if shorty comes along. However, I'd imagine vs. almost any big stack here in the $215s, this is a -$EV play.

Yugoslav

[Opraman]

What are you doing playing a $215 SNG?

Aren't you a $55 player?

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
You should be *much* tighter/passive here UTG than you are. An argument could be made for *only* pushing very, very premium hands. I think this is a horrible push that only gets worse depending on your opponents.

At the very, very least I'd want AJ or something to push here. I think something like TT+,AQ+ is really more like it (and even then I'd consider limping or minraising).

One thing you can possibly do is limp or minraise and commit your chips if shorty comes along. However, I'd imagine vs. almost any big stack here in the $215s, this is a -$EV play.

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]
There is no way I'm not shoving 88 here. I think not shoving AJ here is insane, because you have 5x BB. Limping and minraising bites.

If blinds were 100/200, this is an easy laydown... But they're 200/400. Makes hands a lot more pushier.

Crappage. Anyone want to run this through ICM?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

There is no way I'm not shoving 88 here. I think not shoving AJ here is insane.


[/ QUOTE ]

No it's not. Pushing these hands could be very slightly +EV if the table is very tight. Shorty should be somewhat loose here and the big stack can pretty much call with any cards he 'thinks are pretty'.....if anyone here likes middle pocket pairs or big aces then you're f'ed.

[ QUOTE ]

Crappage. Anyone want to run this through ICM?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just ran it through SNA and I may be advocating being a bit too passive here...but I'm not sure by that much. SNA cannot calculate the EV gained by the SB being allin with the BB almost 100% of the time here if you don't push.

If you put the button on 5% calling range, the SB on 20% calling range and BB on 10% calling range then Pushing the top 5% of hands (99+,AQ+,AJs) is equal or greater than .5icmEV.

However, I think one should be even tighter due to the extra $EV gained by folding that SNA does not calculate.

Yugoslav
PS Where are Gramps and Lori to tell us whether limping a somewhat wide range of hands is good here due to the likely 3-way (and more frequent 4-way) action?

[lastchance]

ICM can't, but you can.

Instead of the actual fold equity, SB is all-in with almost every hand, and BB calls any 2.

So, 50% of the time, stack-sizes while folding will be
1995
4120
1180
2705

You have .2318 EV there.

Other half of the time, stacks are
1995
5300
2705

This is .29 EV.

.5 * .29 + .5 * .232 = .261 Equity when you Fold.

Button pushes some of the time, but this is negligible.

I think your equity also drops because you're paying the blind next round, and considering you have 5x BB, this is lousy.

Maybe drops it to about .255 EV.

That's what my estimate of your equity while folding is.

And if SB isn't calling with >20% of hands here, I think SB's an idiot.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
ICM can't, but you can.


[/ QUOTE ]

Interestingly enough...I just did [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img], and came up with the same numbers and realize that the fact you're paying the blind next round likely cancels out the EV gain you get from SB vs. BB allins. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]

And if SB isn't calling with >20% of hands here, I think SB's an idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, and for this reason I think UTG must be very tight here. Most opponents are liable to be too loose (either somewhat or very) in this situation.

Again, I think my initial push range here isn't so bad....if it maybe is a *bit* tight, I think getting much looser is asking for trouble (as I can't think of any table being tight enough to make those pushes hugely +EV while I can think of tables that would make those pushes very -EV).

Thx for keeping me from being too lazy though, [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

Yugoslav

[future]

[ QUOTE ]
What are you doing playing a $215 SNG?

Aren't you a $55 player?

[/ QUOTE ]

You sound like Hitler.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What are you doing playing a $215 SNG?

Aren't you a $55 player?

[/ QUOTE ]

You sound like Hitler.

[/ QUOTE ]

Too bad citanul isn't still awake.....

Hitler? C'mon....how is that even supposed to be funny? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

You still have time to edit your post and/or delete it. May I suggest something along the lines of 'Who are you, his mother?!' While still not funny....at least you're not bringing Hitler into it.

Yugoslav

[ChrisV]

This is way too aggressive. The borderline for pushing here is something like 88-99, AJ-AQ.