QQ against TAG

[adamstewart]

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Given the way this hand has been played, I think there's more value in betting the river (but folding to a raise).

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Because I would have to fold to a raise I didn't bet this river

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SO???? Why not? You're surely behind if raised on the river.



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Villain could just as easily have a lower pocket pair (i.e. 77, 99, etc) as he could have an ace here. He may also have a paired 8.

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I don't think so, wouldn't you raise or fold the turn with a medium pocket pair in villians spot, I mean what is he hoping to do, catch me bluffing with KQ?


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Good Point. However, given your reasoning here, we should be check/folding the river (as your reasoning concludes we are surely behind).

Check/folding the river is not the best play here, IMO. Why not? Because we may be ahead. Therefore, we should bet the river. (Again, keeping in mind that folding to a raise should be easy as we're almost surely behind then).

If you bet, and hero *calls* with an ace, so be it. He would have bet if checked to anyway! Again, you'd be forced to call anyway. So no more lost.

The only advantage to checking the river, would be if villain would check it through with an ace, giving you a free showdown with a losing hand. But how likely is it that he will check trip aces through, especially after you check it to him?


Thoughts anyone?



Adam

[Harv72b]

I'm mulling over this hand, and I see very few possible hole card combinations that a thinking TAG might have played this way against you: AA, AQ, AJs (I think I'm stretching a bit here), 88, and 22. I throw in the last two pocket pairs because there was already 1 cold caller when he acted preflop, and the blinds had yet to act behind him.

At any rate, those hands all share a common characteristic: they beat you handily. I think if Button was on a smaller PP that did not flop a set, he would likely have raised the flop or at least turn rather than calling both (and if he was on a hand like JJ which he might think is the best PP, he would likely have 3-bet preflop).

The question becomes, how do you play it after villain opts to call the turn rather than make the expected raise? I don't think you made a terrible mistake by check/folding the river--I seriously doubt that a good, thinking TAG is still in the hand with a holding you beat on this river, and certainly not 13% of the time.

[adamstewart]

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I'm mulling over this hand, and I see very few possible hole card combinations that a thinking TAG might have played this way against you: AA, AQ, AJs (I think I'm stretching a bit here), 88, and 22. I throw in the last two pocket pairs because there was already 1 cold caller when he acted preflop, and the blinds had yet to act behind him.

At any rate, those hands all share a common characteristic: they beat you handily. I think if Button was on a smaller PP that did not flop a set, he would likely have raised the flop or at least turn rather than calling both (and if he was on a hand like JJ which he might think is the best PP, he would likely have 3-bet preflop).

The question becomes, how do you play it after villain opts to call the turn rather than make the expected raise? I don't think you made a terrible mistake by check/folding the river--I seriously doubt that a good, thinking TAG is still in the hand with a holding you beat on this river, and certainly not 13% of the time.

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Ya, this is kind of a tough one, eh?

I find it hard to put villain on a hand here other than an Ace. Even so, he hasn't really played his hand accordingly (i.e. probably would have raised the turn).

I also think 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK may be possible holdings. (Again, though, why didn't he 3-bet preflop?)

The thing is, we can't commit strongly to any of these possiblities. Therefore, there remains the chance that our Hero is in the lead. For my reasons stated in my above two responses, I believe betting the river (folding to a raise) is the best play.

Adam

[Harv72b]

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For my reasons stated in my above two responses, I believe betting the river (folding to a raise) is the best play.

Adam

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I tend to agree that bet/fold is probably the best option for this river. I just think I'd also find it hard to make that bet, knowing that I'm almost certainly going to see the raise (even if villain is on the hoped-for smaller PP, I think he'd either fold to the bet or (more likely) raise anyway, knowing Hero's read on him)...I don't blame Stanky for the check/fold one bit.

[adamstewart]

I don't think he said he folded yet, did he?

(I'd like to know the results here).


Adam

[Harv72b]

Compare the river pot to the final pot. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[stanky]

Harv it's like your in my head. How can I bet the river when I'm almost sure a raise is coming and that I'll have to fold to that raise. I mine-as-well just check and call, both options will cost me one BB but checking and calling lets me see his hand.

I chose to check and fold though because with this board and villians stats and his turn call I'm sure I'm beat. If the pot was maybe giving me 11 to 1 I think I would check call. Against a different type of player I would almost certainly bet the river.

-Pete

[stanky]

crap, I forgot to delete that [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[adamstewart]

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Compare the river pot to the final pot. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Damn, you're good.

Nice one. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]


Adam

[adamstewart]

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Harv it's like your in my head. How can I bet the river when I'm almost sure a raise is coming and that I'll have to fold to that raise. I mine-as-well just check and call, both options will cost me one BB but checking and calling lets me see his hand.


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I think this is a very popular way to think.

I don't think it's the correct way to think, though, as your decisions are not based on EV.


As discussed above:
* Betting has value.
* Checking does not (except when inducing bluffs, which is not the case here).
* Having the discipline to fold to a raise costs you no more.


Adam