A4 fold from SB against BB

[Unarmed]

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I don't know a villain that won't call all-in with KQ, KJs, etc.


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Neither do I...it was a contrived example. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[texasrattlers]

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So luckily you don't have to alter your thinking one bit. Just do the exact opposite of your initial instinct.

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Nice.

[Gramps]

Even if BB "was not overly aggresive or loose," and obliges your SB complete by checking to see a flop, any half-aware player with 5k in chips is going to bet the flop when checked to roughly 100% of the time...I don't think you're going to get a free showdown here.

[Nick B.]

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Even if BB "was not overly aggresive or loose," and obliges your SB complete by checking to see a flop, any half-aware player with 5k in chips is going to bet the flop when checked to roughly 100% of the time...I don't think you're going to get a free showdown here.

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Yup, so I check call when an ace hits and get more chips out of him that I will by pushing and hoping that he doesn't have a good hand. Pushing an extremely marginal hand against the chip leader is not a very good strategy. Especially when he has you covered by such a large amount.

[ChrisV]

Any half decent big stack will push allin against a limp here with literally any two cards. I certainly would.

I don't call A4 a marginal hand in this situation. The fact that I'm pushing against the big stack does tighten me up, but given that I'd probably push stuff like T8 suited if he wasn't the big stack, A4 isn't close to getting chopped off the list.

[Gramps]

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Yup, so I check call when an ace hits and get more chips out of him that I will by pushing and hoping that he doesn't have a good hand. Pushing an extremely marginal hand against the chip leader is not a very good strategy. Especially when he has you covered by such a large amount.

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I don't think the stated general rule applies on the facts. First off, A4 is not an "extremely marginal" hand against a random hand. Sure, if you're called you're not feeling great, but the odds of BB having an Ace/pair are only about 12% or so. You have some good fold equity, you're not going to get called very often (given the description of BB as not overly loose).

If you merely complete, a lot of BB's will simply push any two cards on you (even your normally less aggressive ones), so you're only going to see the flop for 1/2 bet a % of the time.

Of that % of the time that you do get to see the flop, an Ace is going to hit a shade over 1/6 times. You'll get a few other flops to your liking, but most of the time you'll be left with Ace high out of position against the chip leader who has the power to steal pots with mini-bets and knows it (or certainly should know it, even at the lower buy-ins).

Even if you do get to see the flop, and even if you do flop an Ace, a pretty standard play for BB is simply to mini-bet his "any two cards" if checked to. Once you call him/raise him on the flop, he's probably not going to spend much more (if any) if he doesn't have anything. So...of the % of the time you do get to see the flop, and of the low % of the time you do get a flop to your liking, it's not like you're going to make a bunch of chips on average - even when the planets align.

To me, pushing in this spot and getting 450 chips the vast majority of the time for free is the better play given the tourney situation and relative stack sizes. If the BB was very loose/very passive, it might be another story (or if you've been raping blinds left and right and have an image of pushing any two when folded to in the SB regardless). You have some good fold equity here, he's not going to have a calling hand much of the time.

[texasrattlers]

Very nice analysis!

[Gramps]

Odds of BB having pair/Ace are more like 17% (roughly). 12% is roughly his odds of having an Ace. And, you'll still suck out a % of the time he calls (with whatever his calling standards turn out to be). So odds of you getting knocked at are odds he has a calling hand (whatever range of calling hands you assing to BB), and the % of the time you lose against that range. Still lowish risk for the reward of 450 chips here (IMHO).

[Nick B.]

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Odds of BB having pair/Ace are more like 17% (roughly). 12% is roughly his odds of having an Ace. And, you'll still suck out a % of the time he calls (with whatever his calling standards turn out to be). So odds of you getting knocked at are odds he has a calling hand (whatever range of calling hands you assing to BB), and the % of the time you lose against that range. Still lowish risk for the reward of 450 chips here (IMHO).

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Well your opinion is wrong. Risking 6xbb to win 1.5x is very bad when you can get knocked out of the tournament. Playing stack sizes is more important than playing cards at no limit. YOu should be more aggressive against short stacks than big stacks, which is why a limp here is correct. Survival is key in tournaments. Pushing A4 against a person with 3x your stack is reckless.

[ChrisV]

You're risking much closer to 5BB - hero has 1560 after posting. Risking 5BB to win 1.5BB heads up with an ace is a deal ill take any day of the week.

Gramps is rarely wrong and this is most certainly not one of those times.