Time to make a move?

[Blindcurve]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with this hand was that the oppponent had already more than doubled up and wasn't in fear of his tournament life. I think I might have done better to raise to 450 and push any turn, since the push is really defining my hand as a flush draw - I don't think a set or whatever would play this way - and he has the chips to be in the mood for a coinflip.

He used up most of his timebank before calling with KJo, the turn was the 2c & MHIG.

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree. I've misplayed this situation a couple of times in the last week or so. I think there is a tendency to vastly overestimate the amount of fold equity one has in a pot like this. I think if the Villain has top pair, with a flop of this texture, the flush push is so standard that Villain calls if he can't be broken. Doubly so, if your villain is not quite as thoughtful as the one here. I like your raise/push the turn line better as it's a little more convincing like you said- you don't look like you're trying to blow the Villain out of the pot. Wish you had more chips though, as a reasonable raise might make one wonder why you didn't push.

My main point is I think the FE on the push behind a raise is minimal. You will fold a bluff or a weaker flush draw. You will not fold TPT-G-WK or better. I think the situation would be more tenable if you push/raise behind the Villain's open, however.

-D.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Because it is very early in the tournament, he could have absolutely anything, and I still have 43 BBs if I fold.

Is that too weak-tight??

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, definately.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're saying a coin-flip is a good risk at this point? Or is it a good push solely because of fold equity? If you *knew* he was going to call with a weak K, would you still push?

I would like more thoughts on this, as this is one of the biggest part of my MTT game that I struggle with.

I guess this all goes back to the "how much of an edge would you fold early in a tournament" question and the two philosophies surrounding it.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a lot of money in the pot already. This may be a coinflip, but it's not like you're getting 1:1 odds.