QQ turn decision.

dozer · #1 07-29-2005, 01:45 AM

BB is a tight passive player. UTG+2 just sat down a few hands ago so no reads. The table is fairly loose with one LAA, the open raiser.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, Hero 3-bets, 5 folds, BB caps, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, Hero...

I didn't raise the flop because I felt it would not acomplish anything in a pot this big and also because of the passive BB's aggression.

I felt I might have a better hand than UTG+2, but I think I am behind the BB. Is it worth it to 3-bet this and hope to get a better hand to fold?

Should I just fold because of the tight passive BB still to act, or is calling down ok?

Jake (The Snake) · #2 07-29-2005, 04:30 AM

What was your plan on the turn if UTG+2 just called? You have to decide on the flop whether or not you might still have the best hand.

If you had raised the flop, I think you can probably take control over this hand a little bit better. If BB has you beat you will probably find out soon enough. By not raising you put yourself in a tough spot on the turn, imo.

dozer · #3 07-29-2005, 04:52 AM

I was planning on just calling down if UTG+2 hadn't raised. I was thinking if I raised the flop, and got 3-bet by the BB. Then I might have to call down anyways due to the pot size, so I decided I would just call down from the flop on.

I probably should have raised to try and take the lead on the flop though. I guess BB 7% vpip after 44 hands and a 2% preflop raise had me worried. Too little hands to tell for sure, but I still think BB is extremely tight, or he could just be running bad this session.

Jake (The Snake) · #4 07-29-2005, 05:01 AM

44 hands isn't a ton, but he only raised with 1 hand so far. He could be running bad but you have no idea. More than likely he has a premium hand.

The problem is that since you have so few postflop hands on him you don't know whether or not he will play AK or TT like this postflop. If you raise the flop and he re-raises you can probably fold the turn unimproved.

When you don't raise the flop though you find yourself in an unsure situation again on the turn.

callmedonnie · #5 07-29-2005, 11:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't raise the flop because I felt it would not acomplish anything in a pot this big and also because of the passive BB's aggression.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like this logic. Here you need to bet for value reasons, and the information that comes it is a huge benefit. You give flop lead a chance to reraise, which is another chance to push people out. Also, then you increase the chances that the turn will checked to you, giving you the chance to take over the hand. Instead you a playing a guessing game, and your decision is dificult. Is AJ raising the turn on a tens lead? That would be best case obviously, but you don't know.

You may not be able to force anyone out there, but if you do have the best hand you should do it for value.

Redd · #6 07-29-2005, 12:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you had raised the flop, I think you can probably take control over this hand a little bit better. If BB has you beat you will probably find out soon enough. By not raising you put yourself in a tough spot on the turn, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I raise the flop for value, because we can't be sure if Villain will continuation-bet AK UI on the turn, and because how Villain reacts has a bearing on the rest of the hand.