Analysis and hand reading exercise

NateDog · #1 03-26-2005, 01:18 PM

Villain is 51/0/.5 through about 5 orbits or so. He is getting short-stacked, and may be getting ready to leave.

Put us on hands here:

Absolute Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with ?, ?.
UTG calls, 3 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (5.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG calls $0.90 (All-In).

Final Pot: 14.65 BB

cold_cash · #2 03-26-2005, 02:09 PM

You: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Him: X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] / some funky two-pair / an Ace that he's stacking off with

TomBrooks · #3 03-26-2005, 02:57 PM

Hero: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG: X [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] X [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], could be any because he's shortstacked and decided to take his final shot with any suited, probably not T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or he might have raised flop with the OESFD.

TheDudeChad · #4 03-26-2005, 04:27 PM

Hero: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] / K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Villain: I'm guessing Aces and 3's/6's. Random guess... A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

NateDog · #5 03-26-2005, 04:32 PM

I hold K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

My play is obviously transparent.

How's my line?

Villain's hand to come . . .

JMBills · #6 03-26-2005, 04:36 PM

Was he trying to slowplay AA?

NateDog · #7 03-26-2005, 04:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Was he trying to slowplay AA?

[/ QUOTE ]

And we have a winner.

Duerig · #8 03-26-2005, 07:45 PM

I don't think I would have bet the turn. Here is my reasoning why you did (and I should in the future). Please let me know if this is correct.

You probably do not have the best hand if you don't improve on the river. I assume your K and Q outs are clean.

I count 6 (KQ) + 9 (spades) for a total of 15 outs. 46 cards to come, you are getting 15:31 and you need 1:1 for this turn bet to be a value bet, is that correct so far?

There are several reasons for this bet then.
1) opponent could fold, and you win the pot
2) opponent puts you on a made hand and won't recognize what you have if one of your draws come in
3) that's all I can think of right now

EDIT: for clarity and bad math

ErrantNight · #9 03-26-2005, 07:47 PM

as a hand reading exercise, this offers us nothing.

from your description, villain could literally have anything.

therefore, you could have virtually anything. if you want analysis on raising/capping the river, we have to know your hand. this is just silly.

NateDog · #10 03-26-2005, 07:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]

There are several reasons for this bet then.
1) opponent could fold, and you win the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

I am semi-bluffing here. Checking behind on the turn is a viable option. UTG is running bad, and the limp up front is ugly.

My draw is strong, discounting the K & Q outs to 1.5 each, I'm drawing to 12 outs with possibly the best hand. When he calls the turn bet, I figure he's got a peice.

Against an opponent who is "stacking off", I'd probably check behind on the river UI, as bluffing at the pot would normally prove fruitless. You have a good feeling he'll call you down if he's got <1 BB left.