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#1
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Re: Friday Special: Double Draw, Call This Push?
53.1 to 46.9 if he has a one pair no draw hand (1.13:1)
60.9 to 39.1 if he has top and bottom pair with no draws Worse with a set. I'd think the most likely hand here is a naked ace. No? In that case its a call with a slight edge and we're supposed to be taking those early on right? (I am not the best player in this tournament, so according to the anthology...I call right there.) Anybody else think its a fold? |
#2
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Re: Friday Special: Double Draw, Call This Push?
I think he could have top pair, two pair, pair and a draw, etc. Something like AJ-A2 (with decreased chances the lower you go), KQ-KJ, maybe JJ. At best you're 56/44 making this very slightly EV.
I understand what the Anthology says about not passing up small edges early, and I agree with it 100%. The question is whether or not you have an edge that would even be classified as "small" (versus negligible) and should you call just for the sake of variance. Having a background in securities portfolio management I always knew that you should be seeking to maximize return while minimizing variance. Variance was bad. I think there are times in poker when variance is fine but they have to do more with meta-game issues which usually aren't present in the first few rounds of a tournament. So I don't think a call is absolutely horrible or anything. I think it's a marginal situation and if you feel like you need to take risk (without the compensatory reward) to go deep in the tournament then by all means this is a great spot. After all if you lose you're stack is still relatively healthy. |
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