Good river check?

[TheDudeChad]

Pacific .50/1 (3 handed/6max)

Both players are loose and passive preflop and fairly aggressive postflop. They have both been bluffing frequently, BB even tried a check-raise river bluff a few hands before.

My reasoning below in white.


Hero is SB with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Button calls, Hero calls, BB checks.

Flop (3 SB): K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero bets, BB calls, Button calls.

Turn (3 BB): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets, BB calls, Button folds.

River (5 BB): Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero checks...




My thinking:
<font color="white">
The only hands that can call this bet are a K, Q, or possibly A high. The only A high that could make it to the river on this scary board is an A high flush draw. If checked to, BB could bluff a busted straight or flush draw, value bet his A high, and would bet a Q 99% of the time. The only time I lose value is if BB checks behind with A high that he would have called my river bet with.

I, of course, plan to raise his bet. Make sense? Or should I stop getting fancy and just bet out? </font>

[GTSamIAm]

Bet that river always.

[baronzeus]

You can go for a sick check-raise, but if he's check-raise bluffed you on the river before, just bet and hope he raises you. If he checks behind with A high you lost some value. If you check-raise, he might even fold, which gains you ntohing if he has an A.

Just play these hands straight forward against all but the trickiest opponents.

[teajay]

Against unknowns, bet this river.

But if you have confidence in your reads, a bluff happy opponent will take a stab at this pot plenty. My concern is that villain will fold when you have him beat, three-bet when it's a chop and just call your raise when he holds a Q.

[TheDudeChad]

[ QUOTE ]

My concern is that villain will fold when you have him beat, three-bet when it's a chop and just call your raise when he holds a Q.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this a good thing?

You make one bet when he bluffs, when you wouldn't make any if you bet out and he folds.

You make two bets when he has a queen; you would probably only make one when you bet out. I think a queen will usually just call this bet, even if he suspects I'm bluffing.

If he has a king, you make zero bets either way.

i would bet this, do you really thing hes going to bet into you after you showed agression on the flop and turn with a paired board with his A high?

[aK13]

Bet the river. Hope he bluff raises so you can 3bet.

[TheDudeChad]

Thanks for the advice guys.

Results: Villain checks behind and mucks cards.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
They have both been bluffing frequently, BB even tried a check-raise river bluff a few hands before.

[/ QUOTE ]
With this read, I bet and hope BB tries to bluff raise me. If you check, there is also a distinct possiblility of it being checked through, which would be a disaster. If you check and BB bets, will he/she call your raise? If not, you've only gained 1 BB. Is it worth the risk? It sure doesn't seem like it to me.