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#31
07-10-2005, 01:35 AM
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Re: $33 Bubble: Wow, -EV to call with AKo vs bigstack pushing with any 2?
Here's why I think it's a clear call:
Assuming the short stack is not a complete idiot (assuming a lot, I know), eventually he will call if the Big stack is truly pushing any two. When he calls and possibly doubles up, it's anyone's ballgame. I don't want to wait until I'm put in that position. If I have a hand as strong as AK, doubling up here gives me a great shot at winning. In addition, the Big stack will be forced to slow down a little. Make the call. If you're in the camp that folds AK, Do you fold JJ? How about QQ? Tru 
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#33
07-10-2005, 01:42 AM
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Re: $33 Bubble: Wow, -EV to call with AKo vs bigstack pushing with an
[ QUOTE ]
If you're in the camp that folds AK, Do you fold JJ? How about QQ? [/ QUOTE ] JJ is a fold, and QQ is marginally positive.
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#34
07-10-2005, 01:45 AM
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Re: $33 Bubble: Wow, -EV to call with AKo vs bigstack pushing with an
Certainly I call with QQ. Almost certainly with JJ. I haven't run the numbers, but I hesitate to put anyone on absolutely any two, so I probably fold TT. Or at least think I should - same as with AK.
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#35
07-10-2005, 01:47 AM
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Re: $33 Bubble: Wow, -EV to call with AKo vs bigstack pushing with an
[ QUOTE ]
Here's why I think it's a clear call: Assuming the short stack is not a complete idiot (assuming a lot, I know), eventually he will call if the Big stack is truly pushing any two. When he calls and possibly doubles up, it's anyone's ballgame. I don't want to wait until I'm put in that position. If I have a hand as strong as AK, doubling up here gives me a great shot at winning. In addition, the Big stack will be forced to slow down a little. Make the call. If you're in the camp that folds AK, Do you fold JJ? How about QQ? Tru [/ QUOTE ] JJ (and TT+99) is much much much stronger than AK in these scenarios where you could be up against any 2.
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#36
07-10-2005, 01:50 AM
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Re: $33 Bubble: Wow, -EV to call with AKo vs bigstack pushing with an
[ QUOTE ]
Certainly I call with QQ. Almost certainly with JJ. I haven't run the numbers, but I hesitate to put anyone on absolutely any two, so I probably fold TT. Or at least think I should - same as with AK. [/ QUOTE ] Ok I'm going to post a very interesting hand from last night where I had TT and made a call like this on the bubble. I have to find it first, but I did it because I thought there were quite good chances my opponent was pushing any 2.
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#37
07-10-2005, 01:55 AM
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Re: $33 Bubble: Wow, -EV to call with AKo vs bigstack pushing with an
Ok I felt this was very controversial hand. UTG was Gigabet (I guess if he reads this he now knows one of my anon handles). Anyway I felt the chances were relatively high that Gigabet is pushing any 2 cards, which makes this a hugely +EV call.
Anyway it didnt show on the converter, but his hand was 87d. Of course if he isnt pushing any 2, calling gets worse. It gets progressively worse the tighter his range, and if his range is relatively tight, its a hugely -EV call. Anyway I just got the sense from some things he's posted and said, that he may push any 2 here, and so I called after using almost all my timebank. Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter UTG (t4020) Button (t1105) SB (t1740) Hero (t3135) Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t4020 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t2835 (All-In). Flop: (t7305) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font> Turn: (t7305) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font> River: (t7305) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font> Final Pot: t7305 btw this is a very dangerous call and Im not sure if it was correct. I have to win about 70% of the time to even be slightly +EV. TT wins about 75% against any 2 cards and then is very large +EV. I only know that its correct if you know your opponent is pushing any 2 cards here, but I didn't know for sure. Also my standard play against an unknown opponent is to fold here.
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#38
07-10-2005, 02:11 AM
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Re: $33 Bubble: Wow, -EV to call with AKo vs bigstack pushing with an
Oh, Villain is Gigabet. Against Gigabet, I make this call in a heartbeat. Against anyone else, I feel laying down here is definitely correct.
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#39
07-10-2005, 02:15 AM
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Re: $33 Bubble: Wow, -EV to call with AKo vs bigstack pushing with an
I hear ya, but he really has to be pushing any 2 to make this correct. I wasn't absolutely sure he would. And I highly doubt hes going to push like 80% and fold the other 20% (It would still be correct in this case).
But I think he either pushes any 2 here and its +ev to call, or he doesn't and his range will make it -EV to call. I felt it was the former but really am not sure. For what it's worth I definitely DON'T push any 2 from UTG there. I raise to 750-800 against a lot of opponents because I know that its very rare that you find a BB who is willing to try to make a move on you in this situation. I definitely fold sometimes though
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#40
07-10-2005, 02:25 AM
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Re: $33 Bubble: Wow, -EV to call with AKo vs bigstack pushing with an
I think it's reasonable to put Gigabet or a lot of other known players - especially 2+2'ers - on ANY two and not just most twos.
I just assume an unknown player has a pretty high chance of choking on the worst hands, even if they think it is a good spot. I don't mean to put unknown players down. I choke on 'any two' pushes all the time.
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