Question on baseball: Stealing situation

#1 10-09-2005, 06:09 PM

I don't know much about baseball, but I've turned on ESPN, and it's the 15th inning btwn Astros, Braves.

Braves have a runner on first who has stolen 16 bases in 19 attempts this year. Not sure if it is, but sounds good to me.

It's 0 balls, 2 strikes to A. Jones. Why not attempt stealing 2nd on this very pitch count? This seems like a perfect opportunity. This pitcher seems to have great control at the moment, having struck out C. Jones, being in control. He's got A. Jones in a bad count position. It's not like the Braves are risking a strikeout/throwout double play, since they have 2 outs. Also, the Braves only have a runner on first, so the chance of him scoring can't be great.

I was watching this, and my instincts tell me, RUN!!!! Wouldn't this be the perfect risk/reward situation to run? Why or why not? Thanks

sublime · #2 10-09-2005, 06:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know much about baseball, but I've turned on ESPN, and it's the 15th inning btwn Astros, Braves.

Braves have a runner on first who has stolen 16 bases in 19 attempts this year. Not sure if it is, but sounds good to me.

It's 0 balls, 2 strikes to A. Jones. Why not attempt stealing 2nd on this very pitch count? This seems like a perfect opportunity. This pitcher seems to have great control at the moment, having struck out C. Jones, being in control. He's got A. Jones in a bad count position. It's not like the Braves are risking a strikeout/throwout double play, since they have 2 outs. Also, the Braves only have a runner on first, so the chance of him scoring can't be great.

I was watching this, and my instincts tell me, RUN!!!! Wouldn't this be the perfect risk/reward situation to run? Why or why not? Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate the stolen base to begin with, but with Jones up and a man on 1st the pitcher cant pitch around him at all, fwiw.

Jack of Arcades · #3 10-09-2005, 06:36 PM

If you steal you take the bat out of Andruw's hands for Adam LaRoche.

sublime · #4 10-09-2005, 06:38 PM

that avatar is so sick, lol

Benholio · #5 10-09-2005, 06:39 PM

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If you steal you take the bat out of Andruw's hands for Julio Franco.

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I think I'd like it better if it WAS Adam LaRoche, since we'd at least have the lefty coming up.

If you can guarantee a successful steal, its a no-brainer. So maybe you take the bat away from Andruw, but now you only need a single most of the time to score the run. Most other hitters with a runner at 2nd have a better chance of driving in a run than Andruw with a runner at first.

Jack of Arcades · #6 10-09-2005, 06:42 PM

oh, right. yeah, julio franco can't hit righties for [censored].

IggyWH · #7 10-09-2005, 06:59 PM

No matter who the batter is, if you try stealing, it's natural for a hitter to protect that stealing runner. That usually means being a lot more aggressive and taking a stab at something that's most likely a ball.

I personally try not to alter one of the best hitters in the bigs this year, although I don't think trying to steal would be such a bad idea either. You got to figure up 0-2 on AJ, you're not going to give him a good pitch which would lead the door open for an easy steal.

#8 10-10-2005, 03:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
No matter who the batter is, if you try stealing, it's natural for a hitter to protect that stealing runner. That usually means being a lot more aggressive and taking a stab at something that's most likely a ball.

I personally try not to alter one of the best hitters in the bigs this year, although I don't think trying to steal would be such a bad idea either. You got to figure up 0-2 on AJ, you're not going to give him a good pitch which would lead the door open for an easy steal.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, I didn't know that batters tend to protect base stealers. In this particular case, I was thinking that an attempt to steal might help A. Jones. Assuming Jones bats as he normally would, these are the possible outcomes.

Jones fouls ball, which doesn't change anything.
Jones strikes out, which doesn't change anything.
Jones hits the ball out, which doesn't change anything.
Jones hits the ball to an infielder, where the only play may be to first, since Giles (?) got a jump on 2nd, this probably doesn't change anything, and he's out at 1st.
Jones gets a hit into the gap, giving Giles a chance to score.

Giles is thrown out at 2nd, which ends the inning. It also returns Jones his 2 strikes against him, letting him leadoff if the Astros don't score in the bottom half.
Giles is safe at 2nd, the count is now 1-2 w/ a running in scoring position. This puts more pressure on the pitcher right? He could pitch around Jones, but that may result in a walk. This is a much better situation than the 0-2 count that Jones was in.

Anyways, whatever, haven't watched a baseball game all year, and I flipped this game on in the 15th w/ 2 outs, and it got me thinking strategy.